Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys — US Open Round of 64

US Open · WTA · Round of 64
Mirra Andreeva
RUS5
Mirra Andreeva
#5WTA
2074ELO
1994Hard ELO
$5.6MYTD
19 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWLWLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 ·
hard
Eva Lys
GER
Eva Lys
#98WTA
1791ELO
1770Hard ELO
24 yrs · 165 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLLLLWL
Andreeva M.
vs
Lys E.

Mirra Andreeva faces Eva Lys in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Mirra Andreeva holds the paper edge — ranked #5, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 220-point hard Elo advantage.

Around the match

  • “I've been definitely having troubles in some matches because I've had a lot of pressure coming from myself, a lot of pressure from the outside. People were expecting me to play the tennis I played last year, not knowing how I felt, not knowing what happened in the past months to me. I've been working a lot with my psychologist the past weeks, because it's been getting to a point where I completely lost the joy of being on court.”

    Lys E.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Andreeva M.89%
Lys E.11%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Andreeva M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
9 common opponents · Andreeva M. 8–5 · Lys E. 2–9
Andreeva M. better · different surfaces (Clay × Hard) · incl. team event▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Andreeva M.
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Lys E.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.8+224 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Hard Elo 1770
8.5Overall Elo 2074
ELO gap
1.5Overall Elo 1791
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.68 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.04 of last 10 on hard
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

46 vs 16 matches

Statistics

This season
Andreeva M.Lys E.
1st serve in·Even
64%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
56%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
39%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
50%
Return points won·Even
47%
43%
Break points saved·Clear edge
61%
47%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.2
0.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.7
5.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (46 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Andreeva M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Lys E.

Lys E.serving49% hold

wins 49% of points on serve vs Andreeva M.

Serve advantage — Andreeva M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Andreeva M.Lys E.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
93
45
Break points saved·Dominant
83
9
Break points won·Even
100
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
93
66
Tiebreaks·
93
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Andreeva M.Lys E.
Freshness·Even
87
88

Andreeva M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Lys E.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 80%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw