Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo — US Open Round of 64
Popyrin A.
Alexei Popyrin faces Alejandro Tabilo in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Alejandro Tabilo is the paper favourite — ranked #28, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage — but Alexei Popyrin has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Alexei Popyrin dropped the opening set before beating Grigor Dimitrov 3–6 6–3 6–2 6–4.
- Head-to-head: Alexei Popyrin leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Roland Garros 2025.
- Stage: Alexei Popyrin defends last year's round of 64; Alejandro Tabilo defends last year's round of 128.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadPopyrin A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 36 games (7d) · Tabilo A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | R64 | clay | Alexei Popyrin | 7-5 6-3 6-4 |