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Win Probability

Friday, 4 September 2026
20 rated matches · 4 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchChun Hsin Tseng vs Fajing Sun48% · 52%Toss-up · Zhangjiagang · QF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAryna Sabalenka vs Kamilla Rakhimova95% · 5%Strong favourite · US Open · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches204 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalZhangjiagang · QF · HardChun Hsin Tseng won 6-3 6-3Chun Hsin Tseng48%Fajing Sun52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalPlovdiv 3 · QF · ClayGeorgii Kravchenko won 6-3 6-3Oleksandr Ovcharenko53%Georgii Kravchenko47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · R32 · HardSorana Cirstea won 6-3 6-3Jasmine Paolini40%Sorana Cirstea60%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–3FinalUS Open · R32 · HardTaylor Townsend won 6-2 6-7(3) 6-3Taylor Townsend39%Diana Shnaider61%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R64 · HardZizou Bergs won 7-5 1-6 6-2 7-6(2)Zizou Bergs64%Jesper De Jong36%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · R32 · HardTommy Paul won 6-4 3-6 6-7(4) 6-1 6-3Alexander Bublik36%Tommy Paul64%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–6FinalUS Open · R32 · HardTomas Martin Etcheverry won 6-4 6-4 6-3Tomas Martin Etcheverry64%Mariano Navone36%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalUS Open · R32 · HardAlex Michelsen won 7-6(5) 6-4 6-3Alex Michelsen68%Daniel Merida Aguilar32%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalUS Open · R32 · HardEmma Navarro won 6-3 7-5Emma Navarro28%Karolina Muchova72%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R64 · HardBotic Van De Zandschulp won 6-4 7-5 6-2Botic Van De Zandschulp25%Alex De Minaur75%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–4FinalUS Open · R32 · HardDaniil Medvedev won 6-4 6-4 6-4Daniil Medvedev75%Arthur Rinderknech25%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalUS Open · R64 · HardLearner Tien won 6-3 6-4 6-3Gael Monfils21%Learner Tien79%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R32 · HardLinda Noskova won 6-2 6-7(6) 6-2Ann Li20%Linda Noskova80%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · R32 · HardJessica Pegula won 1-6 6-4 6-3Jessica Pegula83%Leylah Fernandez17%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 4–1FinalUS Open · R64 · HardCoco Gauff won 6-4 7-6(5)Paula Badosa16%Coco Gauff84%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 4–5FinalUS Open · R32 · HardMarta Kostyuk won 6-3 6-2Marta Kostyuk85%Ekaterina Alexandrova15%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–3FinalUS Open · R64 · HardAlexander Zverev won 6-4 4-6 7-6(3) 6-7(3) 6-3Alexander Zverev92%Quentin Halys8%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 4–0FinalUS Open · R64 · HardElena Rybakina won 6-2 6-4Jessica Bouzas Maneiro8%Elena Rybakina92%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R32 · HardCarlos Alcaraz won 6-3 6-4 6-1Yibing Wu6%Carlos Alcaraz94%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R32 · HardAryna Sabalenka won 6-3 6-4Aryna Sabalenka95%Kamilla Rakhimova5%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–4
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 3 Sep17 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 14.7 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days3 Sep 2026W15 Brasov · R16Alexia Shara Iancu beat Georgia Andreea Craciun 3-6 6-3 6-4Pre-match: Alexia Shara Iancu 8%Surprise score92

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.