Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida AguilarUS Open Round of 32

US Open · ATP · Round of 32
#46ATP
1825ELO
1810Hard ELO
22 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWWL
3 — 0
Sets
Friday, 4 September 2026 ·
hard
Stadium 17 · 4th on
#39ATP
1744ELO
1676Hard ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLWWWW
Michelsen A.
7-6 6-4 6-3
Merida Aguilar D.
Michelsen A.
77663
Merida Aguilar D.
65430

Alex Michelsen defeated Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Round of 32 at the US Open. The match ended with a score of 7-6, 6-4, 6-3 in favor of Michelsen. Michelsen hit 4 aces and 1 double fault, while converting 67% of break points and securing 2 service breaks, compared to Aguilar's 6 aces, 4 double faults, 20% break point conversion, and 0 service breaks.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

  • Match story: Alex Michelsen closed it out in three sets, 7–6 6–4 6–3.

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-07MontrealR32hardDaniel Merida Aguilar6-4 6-7 6-1
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersR128hardAlex Michelsen6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Even
37%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
2.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
60
55
Break points saved·Dominant
92
64
Break points won·Clear edge
32
46
Deciding sets·Slight edge
76
87
Tiebreaks·Dominant
84
49

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Michelsen A.68%
Merida Aguilar D.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Michelsen A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.7+135 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Hard Elo 1676
6.0Overall Elo 1825
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1744
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
7.07 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.88 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
41
74

Michelsen A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 149 games (7d) · Merida Aguilar D.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 73 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw