Alex Michelsen vs Tomas Martin EtcheverryUS Open Round of 16

US Open · ATP · Round of 16
#46ATP
1825ELO
1810Hard ELO
22 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWWL
3 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 6 September 2026 ·
hard
Grandstand · 3rd on
#32ATP
1812ELO
1766Hard ELO
27 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLLLWWL
Michelsen A.
7-6 6-4 6-4
Etcheverry T.
Michelsen A.
78663
Etcheverry T.
66440

Alex Michelsen advanced to the quarterfinals of the US Open by defeating Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the Round of 16. Michelsen won in straight sets, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4. He hit 9 aces to Etcheverry's 4 and converted 67% of his break points compared to Etcheverry's 33%, securing 2 service breaks to Etcheverry's 1.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
55%
Service points won·Even
65%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
58%
Aces / match·Even
6.4
6.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
60
50
Break points saved·Even
92
95
Break points won·Clear edge
32
10
Deciding sets·Slight edge
76
84
Tiebreaks·Dominant
84
50

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Michelsen A.68%
Etcheverry T.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Michelsen A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.6+44 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Hard Elo 1766
5.2Overall Elo 1825
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1812
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.37 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
41
66

Michelsen A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 149 games (7d) · Etcheverry T.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 98 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 65%

Draw