Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez — US Open Round of 32

US Open · WTA · Round of 32
Jessica Pegula
USA3
Jessica Pegula
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 4 September 2026 ·
hard
Arthur Ashe Stadium · 2nd on
Leylah Fernandez
CAN31
Leylah Fernandez
#33WTA
1805ELO
1785Hard ELO
$906kYTD
24 yrs · 168 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLWWLWLL
Pegula J.
1-6 6-4 6-3
Fernandez L.
Pegula J.
1662
Fernandez L.
6431

Jessica Pegula defeated Leylah Fernandez in the Round of 32 at the US Open, coming back from a set down to win 1-6, 6-4, 6-3. Pegula served two aces and committed two double faults, while Fernandez had none of either. Pegula converted all her break points and made one service break to Fernandez's none.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • “Every match we've played throughout the years has been very tough. Sonya's given me a lot of trouble in the past, she's a great player and a champion. I was just trying to stay focused on what I needed to do, and luckily was able to be pretty efficient out there today.”

    Pegula J.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “I'm going for my spots. I'm going pretty big on second serves, I'm trying to mix up where I'm going and just trust that I can hit good serves in the moment. That's been a lot of work we've done off court, so really excited when I can practise something and it pays off in the match.”

    Pegula J.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

3–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-17MiamiR32hardJessica Pegula6-2 6-2
2025-07-21WashingtonR16hardLeylah Fernandez6-3 1-6 7-5
2024-08-12CincinnatiQFhardJessica Pegula7-5 6-7 7-6
2024-03-18MiamiR32hardJessica Pegula7-5 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Pegula J.Fernandez L.
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
46%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.1
2.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Pegula J.Fernandez L.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
94
79
Break points saved·Slight edge
86
77
Break points won·Slight edge
99
90
Deciding sets·Clear edge
99
84
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
91
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Pegula J.83%
Fernandez L.17%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Pegula J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Fernandez L.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.4+273 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.6Hard Elo 1785
8.6Overall Elo 2096
ELO gap
1.4Overall Elo 1805
6.6Leads 3–1 on hard
H2H
3.4Trails 1–3 on hard
8.28 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
8.5Reached the semis here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Pegula J.Fernandez L.
Freshness·Dominant
56
83

Pegula J.: played today · 4 matches, 89 games (7d) · Fernandez L.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw