Dayana Yastremska vs Leylah FernandezBrisbane Round of 32

Brisbane · WTA · Round of 32
#67WTA
1792ELO
1733Hard ELO
$505kYTD
$6.5MCAREER
26 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#24WTA
1805ELO
1785Hard ELO
$787kYTD
$8.1MCAREER
23 yrs · 168 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Yastremska D.
6-1 6-2
Fernandez L.
Yastremska D.
662
Fernandez L.
120

Dayana Yastremska defeated Leylah Fernandez 6-1 6-2 in the Brisbane round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Leylah Fernandez came in ranked #24. Dayana Yastremska extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-16NottinghamQFgrassDayana Yastremska6-3 7-6(6)
2021-07-24Tokyo OlympicsR64hardLeylah Fernandez6-3 3-6 6-0

Serve vs return

This season
Yastremska D.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Fernandez L.

Fernandez L.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Yastremska D.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Yastremska D.Fernandez L.
11
Serve
60
25
Return
27

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
55%
59%
Return points won·Even
43%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
51%
66%
Aces / match·Even
2.3
2.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
5.2
4.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
77
87
Break points saved·Slight edge
89
95
Break points won·Even
92
95
Deciding sets·Dominant
63
90
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
98
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 76 days (−1.2)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 69 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1733
Surface ELO
6.1+52 Hard Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1792
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1805
5.0
H2H
5.0
3.5
Surface form
7.8
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
5.6
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
92
98

Yastremska D.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Fernandez L.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw