Dayana Yastremska vs Leylah FernandezNottingham Quarter-final

Nottingham · WTA · Quarter-final
#74WTA
1792ELO
1673Grass ELO
$505kYTD
$6.5MCAREER
26 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 16 June 2025
grass
#25WTA
1805ELO
1661Grass ELO
$787kYTD
$8.1MCAREER
23 yrs · 168 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Yastremska D.
6-3 7-6
Fernandez L.
Yastremska D.
6782
Fernandez L.
3660

Dayana Yastremska defeated Leylah Fernandez 6-3 7-6 in the Nottingham quarter-final on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Leylah Fernandez came in ranked #25, but Dayana Yastremska had been the form player, winning 2 of their last 5 on grass. Dayana Yastremska extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneR32hardDayana Yastremska6-1 6-2
2021-07-24Tokyo OlympicsR64hardLeylah Fernandez6-3 3-6 6-0

Serve vs return

This season
Yastremska D.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Fernandez L.

Fernandez L.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Yastremska D.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
48%
Service points won·Even
57%
60%
Return points won·Even
44%
43%
Break points saved·Even
56%
60%
Aces / match·Even
2.9
2.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.9
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (76 vs 76). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
77
87
Break points saved·Slight edge
89
95
Break points won·Even
92
95
Deciding sets·Dominant
63
90
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
98
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7+12 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.3Grass Elo 1661
3.9Overall Elo 1792
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1805
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.2
Surface form
5.7
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.9
Prev. match
8.0
3.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
93
99

Yastremska D.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Fernandez L.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast