Leylah Fernandez vs Alexandra Eala — Washington Round of 16
CAN7
Fernandez L.
Leylah Fernandez faces Alexandra Eala in the Washington round of 16 on hard. Alexandra Eala is the paper favourite — ranked #28, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage — but Leylah Fernandez has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Leylah Fernandez brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 54), Alexandra Eala the stronger return game (Return Rating 55).
- Last match: Alexandra Eala dropped the opening set before beating Qinwen Zheng 4–6 6–4 6–1.
- Last match: Leylah Fernandez dropped just 5 games past Magda Linette.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFernandez L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Stuttgart | R32 | clay | Leylah Fernandez | 6-1 6-4 |