Alexandra Eala vs Elina Svitolina — Washington Quarter-final
UKR2
Eala A.
Alexandra Eala faces Elina Svitolina in the Washington quarter-final on hard. Elina Svitolina is the paper favourite — ranked #10, a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage — but Alexandra Eala has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Svitolina E. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Alexandra Eala comes in with 2 days of rest and 48 games in 14d, vs Elina Svitolina's 0 and 23.
- Last match: Elina Svitolina edged Polina Kudermetova in two tight sets (7–6 6–4).
- Head-to-head: Alexandra Eala leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Berlin 2026.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadEala A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d) · Svitolina E.: played today · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Berlin | QF | grass | Alexandra Eala | 3-6 4-6 |