Jasmine Paolini vs Elina SvitolinaBJK Cup Finals Round Robin

BJK Cup Finals · WTA · Round Robin
#15WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 19 September 2025
hard
#10WTA
2070ELO
1997Hard ELO
$3.4MYTD
$30MCAREER
31 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
Paolini J.
3-6 6-4 6-4
Svitolina E.
Paolini J.
3662
Svitolina E.
6441

Jasmine Paolini defeated Elina Svitolina 3-6 6-4 6-4 in the BJK Cup Finals round robin on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elina Svitolina came in ranked #10, leading the head-to-head 2–0, but Jasmine Paolini had arrived on a 4-match winning run. Jasmine Paolini claimed a first win over Elina Svitolina in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR16clayElina Svitolina4-6 7-6(6) 6-1
2025-01-13Australian OpenR32hardElina Svitolina2-6 6-4 6-0

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Svitolina E.

Svitolina E.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Svitolina E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paolini J.Svitolina E.
31
Serve
48
55
Return
57

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Even
57%
60%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.5
3.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (74 vs 70). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
89
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
93
Break points won·Even
99
99
Deciding sets·Even
97
99
Tiebreaks·Even
93
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 43 days (−0.7)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 43 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1873
Surface ELO
6.1+125 Hard Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 2070
0.0
H2H
10.0
8.1
Surface form
6.0
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Context
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
82
99

Paolini J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Svitolina E.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast