Marta Kostyuk vs Ekaterina AlexandrovaUS Open Round of 32

US Open · WTA · Round of 32
#11WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 4 September 2026 ·
hard
Grandstand · 1st on
#19WTA
1844ELO
1800Hard ELO
$1.0MYTD
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLWLWWWW
Kostyuk M.
6-3 6-2
Alexandrova E.
Kostyuk M.
662
Alexandrova E.
320

Marta Kostyuk advanced to the Round of 16 at the US Open by defeating Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Round of 32. Kostyuk won the match 6-3, 6-2. In the match, Kostyuk hit 2 aces and 3 double faults, while converting 50% of her break points and winning 2 service breaks to Alexandrova's 1.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-09-12PortorozR32hardEkaterina Alexandrova7-6 5-7 7-5
2021-05-10RomeR64clayEkaterina Alexandrova6-3 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
44%
Service points won·Even
61%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.4
4.4
Double faults / match·Even
4.1
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
86
56
Break points saved·Even
72
71
Break points won·Even
94
95
Deciding sets·Dominant
95
51
Tiebreaks·Dominant
80
16

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Kostyuk M.85%
Alexandrova E.15%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Kostyuk M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.1+168 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.9Hard Elo 1800
7.7Overall Elo 2057
ELO gap
2.3Overall Elo 1844
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
7.37 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.77 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
71
81

Kostyuk M.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d) · Alexandrova E.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw