Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva — Bad Homburg Round of 16
Alexandrova E.Ekaterina Alexandrova faces Mirra Andreeva in the Bad Homburg round of 16 on grass. Mirra Andreeva is the paper favourite — ranked #5, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage — but Ekaterina Alexandrova has won their only previous meeting, though none on grass.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Andreeva M. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Ekaterina Alexandrova 27 games in 14 days, Mirra Andreeva 0.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Ekaterina Alexandrova grades 54 on serve, Mirra Andreeva 82 on return.
- Win streak: Mirra Andreeva arrives on a 7-match winning run.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadAlexandrova E.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Andreeva M.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-14 | Stuttgart | R16 | clay | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 6-3 6-2 |