Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva — Bad Homburg Round of 16

Bad Homburg · WTA · Round of 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
RUS
Ekaterina Alexandrova
#19WTA
1844ELO
1739Grass ELO
$1.0MYTD
$11MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
Mirra Andreeva
RUS2
Mirra Andreeva
#5WTA
2074ELO
1802Grass ELO
$5.6MYTD
$13MCAREER
19 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWWWW
Alexandrova E.
6-3 6-4
Andreeva M.
Alexandrova E.
662
Andreeva M.
340

Ekaterina Alexandrova defeated Mirra Andreeva 6-3, 6-4 in the Round of 16 at the Bad Homburg grass tournament. The match was part of the event's singles competition. Alexandrova advanced with the win.

Around the match

  • “It's cozy here, everything is close together, you have a few nice restaurants, and it's a quick walk from the hotel to the city.”

    Andreeva M.fnp.de ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-14StuttgartR16clayEkaterina Alexandrova6-3 6-2

Statistics

This season
Alexandrova E.Andreeva M.
1st serve in·Even
60%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
43%
49%
Service points won·Even
57%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
50%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.6
3.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.1
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 47). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Alexandrova E.Andreeva M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
52
94
Break points saved·Clear edge
70
84
Break points won·Slight edge
95
100
Deciding sets·Dominant
41
94
Tiebreaks·Dominant
15
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Alexandrova E.19%
Andreeva M.81%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Andreeva M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Alexandrova E.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Andreeva M.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
5.9+71 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Grass Elo 1563
1.7Overall Elo 1718
ELO gap
8.3Overall Elo 1979
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.16 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.25 of last 10 on grass
Win streak
9.07-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
3.0Clay → Grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Alexandrova E.Andreeva M.
Freshness·Slight edge
82
91

Alexandrova E.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Andreeva M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 14 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 57%

Draw