Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz — US Open Round of 32

US Open · ATP · Round of 32
Yibing Wu
CHN
Yibing Wu
#113ATP
1743ELO
1741Hard ELO
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLWLWWW
0 — 3
Sets
Friday, 4 September 2026 ·
hard
Arthur Ashe Stadium · 3rd on
Carlos Alcaraz
ESP2
Carlos Alcaraz
#3ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWWW
Wu Y.
3-6 4-6 1-6
Alcaraz C.
Wu Y.
3410
Alcaraz C.
6663

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Yibing Wu in the Round of 32 at the US Open. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 in favor of Alcaraz.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • Wu, ranked outside top 100 after returning from a three-year injury layoff, reached the US Open third round for only the second time and will face Alcaraz next.

    Umpiry summary — not a quote

    Wu Y.tennismajors.com ↗

  • Alcaraz managing wrist injury from earlier in season, serving at less than full speed but performing well through two matches at US Open.

    Umpiry summary — not a quote

    Alcaraz C.Last Word On Sports ↗

  • “It's impossible to play every tournament… You can decide your calendar, but there are some Masters 1000s, some Grand Slams, and we've been out playing 40 weeks if we have to play every mandatory tournament that the ATP requires us to play.”

    Alcaraz C.Sports Illustrated ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

  • Match story: Carlos Alcaraz came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–3 6–4 6–1.

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-10-02Shanghai MastersR32hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6 6-3

Statistics

This season
Wu Y.Alcaraz C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
57%
Service points won·Even
64%
68%
Return points won·Even
39%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
68%
Aces / match·Even
4.5
4.9
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Wu Y.Alcaraz C.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
71
97
Break points saved·Slight edge
92
100
Break points won·Dominant
39
98
Deciding sets·Slight edge
92
100
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
92
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Wu Y.6%
Alcaraz C.94%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Alcaraz C. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Wu Y.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Alcaraz C.
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
0.7Hard Elo 1741
Surface ELO
9.3+348 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1743
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2162
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.98 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Wu Y.Alcaraz C.
Freshness·Clear edge
81
68

Wu Y.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Alcaraz C.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 88 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 43%

Draw