Jaime Faria vs Carlos Alcaraz — US Open Round of 64
ESP2
Faria J.
Jaime Faria faces Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Carlos Alcaraz holds the paper edge — ranked #3, defending the title, a roughly 470-point hard Elo advantage.
Around the match
Alcaraz returns to competition after extended absence to recover from wrist injury.
Alcaraz C.Last Word On Sports ↗“I was very impressed with his movement, didn't look rusty. If he starts to play like that and get a couple of matches under his belt, I think that all of a sudden in the locker room, the view might change.”
Alcaraz C.Tennishead ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Alcaraz C. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Jaime Faria comes in with 3 days of rest and 67 games in 14d, vs Carlos Alcaraz's 2 and 30.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Carlos Alcaraz has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 97 vs 54).
- Stage: Jaime Faria defends last year's round of 128; Carlos Alcaraz defends the title here.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (50 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFaria J.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 47 games (7d) · Alcaraz C.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.