Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian BaezMonte Carlo Masters Round of 32

Monte Carlo Masters · ATP · Round of 32
#3ATP
2162ELO
2102Clay ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 5 April 2026
clay
#56ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Alcaraz C.
6-1 6-3
Baez S.
Alcaraz C.
662
Baez S.
130

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Sebastian Baez 6-1 6-3 in the Monte Carlo Masters round of 32 on clay. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 3–0, defending the title. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 4–0.

Key context

Head to head

30
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-24TokyoR32hardCarlos Alcaraz6-4 6-2
2022-08-29US OpenR128hardCarlos Alcaraz7-5 7-5 2-0 RET
2021-11-08NextGen FinalsSFhardCarlos Alcaraz4-2 4-1 4-2

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Alcaraz C.Baez S.
Serve
1
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
68%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
62%
Return points won·Even
41%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.8
1.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
87
Break points saved·Even
100
96
Break points won·Clear edge
99
86
Deciding sets·Clear edge
100
88
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
100
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+384 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Clay Elo 1718
10.0Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1759
5.0
H2H
5.0
10.0
Surface form
5.2
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.4
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
6.0
Surface transition
Context
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
96

Baez S.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
19°CMainly clear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 48%