Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian BaezTokyo Round of 32

Tokyo · ATP · Round of 32
#2ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 24 September 2025
hard
#57ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Alcaraz C.
6-4 6-2
Baez S.
Alcaraz C.
662
Baez S.
420

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Sebastian Baez 6-4 6-2 in the Tokyo round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 3–0. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 4–0.

Key context

Head to head

30
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-05Monte Carlo MastersR32clayCarlos Alcaraz6-1 6-3
2022-08-29US OpenR128hardCarlos Alcaraz7-5 7-5 2-0 RET
2021-11-08NextGen FinalsSFhardCarlos Alcaraz4-2 4-1 4-2

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.Baez S.
74
Serve
5
95
Return
63

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
57%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
60%
Return points won·Even
42%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.6
1.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (103 vs 79). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
87
Break points saved·Even
100
96
Break points won·Clear edge
99
86
Deciding sets·Clear edge
100
88
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
100
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.3
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
3.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 38 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
10.0+380 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1709
10.0Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1759
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.4
Surface form
2.6
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.6
Minutes 14d
9.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
95

Baez S.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 49%