Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo MusettiTour Finals Round Robin

Tour Finals · ATP · Round Robin
#2ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 9 November 2025
hard
#15ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
Alcaraz C.
6-4 6-1
Musetti L.
Alcaraz C.
662
Musetti L.
410

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Lorenzo Musetti 6-4 6-1 in the Tour Finals round robin on hard. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 6–1, defending last year's round-robin. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 7–1.

Key context

Head to head

61
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosSFclayCarlos Alcaraz4-6 7-6(3) 6-0 2-0 RET
2025-05-07Rome MastersSFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-3 7-6(4)
2025-04-07Monte Carlo MastersFclayCarlos Alcaraz3-6 6-1 6-0
2024-03-18Miami MastersR16hardCarlos Alcaraz6-3 6-3
2023-09-27BeijingR16hardCarlos Alcaraz6-2 6-2
2023-05-29Roland GarrosR16clayCarlos Alcaraz6-3 6-2 6-2
2022-07-18HamburgFclayLorenzo Musetti6-4 6-7(6) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Musetti L.

Musetti L.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.Musetti L.
74
Serve
54
95
Return
62

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
55%
Service points won·Even
68%
66%
Return points won·Even
42%
39%
Break points saved·Even
66%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.6
4.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (103 vs 80). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
89
Break points saved·Even
100
98
Break points won·Clear edge
99
82
Deciding sets·Even
100
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.1
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.7+285 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.3Hard Elo 1804
8.8Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
1.2Overall Elo 1869
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.7
Surface form
6.1
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.6
Minutes 14d
3.2
7.0
3-set count
0.0
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast