Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos AlcarazHamburg Final

Hamburg · ATP · Final
#15ATP
1869ELO
1853Clay ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 18 July 2022
clay
#2ATP
2162ELO
2102Clay ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
Musetti L.
6-4 6-7 6-4
Alcaraz C.
Musetti L.
66662
Alcaraz C.
47841

Lorenzo Musetti defeated Carlos Alcaraz 6-4 6-7 6-4 in the Hamburg final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 7–0. Lorenzo Musetti claimed a first win over Carlos Alcaraz in eight meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 7–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Lorenzo Musetti edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–7 6–4.

Head to head

07
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-09Tour FinalsRRhardCarlos Alcaraz6-4 6-1
2025-05-26Roland GarrosSFclayCarlos Alcaraz4-6 7-6(3) 6-0 2-0 RET
2025-05-07Rome MastersSFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-3 7-6(4)
2025-04-07Monte Carlo MastersFclayCarlos Alcaraz3-6 6-1 6-0
2024-03-18Miami MastersR16hardCarlos Alcaraz6-3 6-3
2023-09-27BeijingR16hardCarlos Alcaraz6-2 6-2
2023-05-29Roland GarrosR16clayCarlos Alcaraz6-3 6-2 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Musetti L.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Alcaraz C.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Musetti L.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Musetti L.Alcaraz C.
35
Serve
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
57%
Service points won·Even
64%
68%
Return points won·Even
38%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.1
5.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
98
Break points saved·Even
98
100
Break points won·Clear edge
82
99
Deciding sets·Even
99
100
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
95
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
1.7Clay Elo 1853
Surface ELO
8.3+249 Clay Elo edge
1.2Overall Elo 1869
ELO gap
8.8Overall Elo 2162
0.0
H2H
10.0
7.1
Surface form
8.5
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.2
Minutes 14d
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 42%