Jaime Faria vs Lorenzo MusettiCincinnati Round of 16

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 16
#79ATP
1735ELO
1615Hard ELO
$531kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 20 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 3 · 5th on
#15ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLWWLWW
Faria J.
5-7 2-6
Musetti L.
Faria J.
520
Musetti L.
762

Lorenzo Musetti advanced to the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati tournament with a 7-5, 6-2 victory over Jaime Faria in the Round of 16. Musetti hit 6 aces and committed 1 double fault, while Faria had 4 aces and 4 double faults. Musetti converted all of his break points and won 4 service breaks to Faria's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.1
4.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (50 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
54
89
Break points saved·Clear edge
76
94
Break points won·Dominant
22
81
Deciding sets·Clear edge
81
99
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
76
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Faria J.29%
Musetti L.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Musetti L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.6Hard Elo 1615
Surface ELO
7.4+188 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1735
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1869
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.46 of last 10 on hard
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
52
70

Faria J.: played today · 5 matches, 111 games (7d) · Musetti L.: played today · 3 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 86%

Draw