Jaime Faria vs Luciano Darderi — Estoril Quarter-final
POR
ITA2
Faria J.
Jaime Faria faces Luciano Darderi in the Estoril quarter-final on clay. Luciano Darderi is the paper favourite — ranked #21, a roughly 130-point clay Elo advantage — but Jaime Faria has won their only previous meeting. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Darderi L. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Jaime Faria dropped just 6 games past Gonzalo Bueno.
- Last match: Luciano Darderi handed Pedro Martinez a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–1 win.
- Fatigue load: Jaime Faria carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFaria J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Darderi L.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 74 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-24 | Santiago | R32 | clay | Jaime Faria | 6-3 6-4 |