Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex De MinaurUS Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
#187ATP
1545ELO
1393Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLWWW
0 — 3
Sets
Wednesday, 2 September 2026 ·
hard
Court 11 · 2nd on
#7ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWLWWL
Guerrieri A.
2-6 2-6 4-6
De Minaur A.
Guerrieri A.
2240
De Minaur A.
6663

Alex De Minaur defeated Andrea Guerrieri in the Round of 128 at the US Open. De Minaur won in straight sets 6-2, 6-2, 6-4. He hit 5 aces and 5 double faults, converting 50% of break points and securing 6 service breaks to Guerrieri's 1.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

  • Match story: Alex De Minaur closed it out in three sets, 6–2 6–2 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
64%
Return points won·Even
44%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
68%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.4
4.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.5
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
62
95
Break points saved·Clear edge
80
97
Break points won·Dominant
40
97
Deciding sets·Clear edge
84
96
Tiebreaks·
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Guerrieri A.12%
De Minaur A.88%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · De Minaur A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1393
Surface ELO
10.0+542 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1545
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 1961
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.18 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
7.0Reached the quarters here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
90
86

Guerrieri A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · De Minaur A.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 85%

Draw