Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz — US Open Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Round of 64
Ben Shelton
USA8
Ben Shelton
#9ATP
1960ELO
1922Hard ELO
23 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWWWLW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 2 September 2026 ·
hard
Arthur Ashe Stadium · 2nd on
Hubert Hurkacz
POL
Hubert Hurkacz
#46ATP
1798ELO
1727Hard ELO
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLWWLW
Shelton B.
vs
Hurkacz H.

Ben Shelton faces Hubert Hurkacz in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Ben Shelton is the paper favourite — ranked #9, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage — but Hubert Hurkacz rides a 5-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Shelton B.68%
Hurkacz H.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Shelton B. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
12 common opponents · Shelton B. 9–4 · Hurkacz H. 10–3
Hurkacz H. better · same surface · incl. team event · ⚠ lower-tier event▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Shelton B.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Hurkacz H.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.4+195 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Hard Elo 1726
7.0Overall Elo 1960
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1798
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.08 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.48 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

35 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Shelton B.Hurkacz H.
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
79%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
60%
51%
Service points won·Even
71%
69%
Return points won·Even
31%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
74%
69%
Aces / match·Clear edge
11.7
14.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.1
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Shelton B.serving95% hold

wins 76% of points on serve vs Hurkacz H.

Hurkacz H.serving96% hold

wins 77% of points on serve vs Shelton B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Shelton B.Hurkacz H.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
79
67
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
47
16
Deciding sets·Even
96
92
Tiebreaks·Even
95
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Shelton B.Hurkacz H.
Freshness·Even
74
72

Shelton B.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 35 games (7d) · Hurkacz H.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on Arthur Ashe Stadium · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1WPegula J. v Kenin S.Live
    6-35-1
  2. 2MShelton B. v Hurkacz H.This match
  3. 3WSabalenka A. v Iatcenko P.

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 82%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw