Thea Frodin vs Elena Rybakina — US Open Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Round of 128
USAWC
Thea Frodin
#585WTA
17 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 1 September 2026 ·
hard
Grandstand · 1st on
Elena Rybakina
KAZ2
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWLW
Frodin T.
3-6 2-6
Rybakina E.
Frodin T.
320
Rybakina E.
662

Elena Rybakina defeated Thea Frodin in the Round of 128 at the US Open. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 6-2 in favor of Rybakina. Key stats included Rybakina's 3 service breaks and 50% break point conversion rate, compared to Frodin's 0 breaks and 0% conversion rate.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • Rybakina's Achilles injury suffered in Cincinnati has created significant uncertainty about her US Open participation and deep-run prospects despite improving odds.

    Umpiry summary — not a quote

    Rybakina E.Yahoo Sports ↗

  • “I started to practice, so I feel well. We're still making some adjustments. Overall, I'm happy how we dealt with the problem. It's just a matter of a couple more practices.”

    Rybakina E.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Frodin T.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Even
57%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
64%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Clear edge
48%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.6
6.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
7.9
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Frodin T.6%
Rybakina E.94%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Frodin T.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Rybakina E.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.56 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.58 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Frodin T.Rybakina E.
Freshness·Clear edge
97
74

Frodin T.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Rybakina E.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 87%

Draw