Marta Kostyuk vs Storm Hunter — US Open Round of 128
UKR11
Kostyuk M.
Marta Kostyuk faces Storm Hunter in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Marta Kostyuk is the paper favourite — ranked #11, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 300-point hard Elo advantage — but Storm Hunter arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 5 on hard to Marta Kostyuk's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Kostyuk M. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Marta Kostyuk 95 games in 14 days, Storm Hunter 61.
- Under pressure: Marta Kostyuk has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 86 vs Storm Hunter's 43).
- Last match: Storm Hunter dropped just 5 games past Darja Semenistaja.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadKostyuk M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Hunter S.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.