Win probability

Thursday, 2 July 2026

20 matches selected · 2 tournaments · model last ran 16:50 UTC

Umpiry rates 20 matches on Thursday, 2 July 2026. The closest is Marcos Giron v Quentin Halys at 54 % — the model’s most uncertain call of the day. The most one-sided is Alexander Zverev v Valentin Royer at 94 %. Probabilities come from a per-tour model trained on Elo, surface Elo, recent serve and return form and layoff.

Rated matches · ordered closest first
TimeTournamentRoundMatchProbabilityVerdictH2H
13:10Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64Giron M.Halys Q.54 %46 %Toss-up2–0
10:10Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64Sonego L.Diallo G.54 %46 %Toss-up2–0
11:50Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64Bergs Z.Faria J.54 %46 %Toss-up1–0
10:10Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64Virtanen O.Fery A.62 %38 %Slight edge1–1
14:55Wimbledon
WTA · grass
R64Sakkari M.Rakhimova K.64 %36 %Slight edge4–0
15:00Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64Khachanov K.Hanfmann Y.67 %33 %Slight edge2–0
10:10Wimbledon
WTA · grass
R64Shnaider D.Samsonova L.74 %26 %Clear favourite3–1
17:15Wimbledon
WTA · grass
R64Paolini J.Golubic V.78 %22 %Clear favourite3–3
16:40Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64Mensik J.Dimitrov G.79 %21 %Clear favourite2–1
14:15Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64Fils A.Berrettini M.81 %19 %Strong favourite1–1
12:45Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64Nakashima B.Lennard Struff J.84 %16 %Strong favourite0–1
12:30Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64Jodar R.Carreno Busta P.85 %15 %Strong favourite2–0
14:30Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64Cobolli F.Duckworth J.86 %14 %Strong favourite2–2
12:40Wimbledon
WTA · grass
R64Swiatek I.Pliskova K.86 %14 %Strong favourite4–0
14:10Wimbledon
WTA · grass
R64Anisimova A.Kenin S.87 %13 %Strong favourite1–1
10:10Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64De Minaur A.Mannarino A.88 %12 %Strong favourite7–1
17:45Wimbledon
WTA · grass
R64Noskova L.Osorio C.89 %11 %Strong favourite1–1
17:30Wimbledon
WTA · grass
R64Rybakina E.Mcnally C.90 %10 %Strong favourite2–1
10:10Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64Fritz T.Kypson P.94 %6 %Strong favourite1–0
14:10Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64Zverev A.Royer V.94 %6 %Strong favourite2–0

How to read this

Each row gives the model’s probability that the favourite wins, and the verdict says the same thing in words. Rows are ordered by how close the model thinks the match is, so the top of the table is where it is least sure. A 70 % favourite losing is not a broken model — it is the 30 %. Probabilities are not odds and take no account of any market.

How often the model has been right

Umpiry win-probability model accuracy by tour family, measured on the predictions the model made
TourCorrect
ATP / WTA66 %
Challenger (men)64 %
Challenger (women)68 %
ITF (men)66 %
ITF (women)64 %

Measured on the predictions the model actually made, not on a backtest — see Methodology.

Yesterday

Wednesday, 1 July 2026 · 20 matches

Favourites won

16 / 20

Model expected

15.3

The model expected 15.3 favourites to win; 16 did. See yesterday’s page.

Biggest shock, last 7 days

1 Jul
Wimbledon
ATP · grass
R64
Shintaro Mochizuki beat Ethan Quinn

Surprise score

89

Questions

How is the probability calculated?
A separate model for each tour, trained on Elo, surface-specific Elo, recent serve and return form and time since the player’s last match. It runs several times a day; the time of the last run is at the top of this page.
How often is the model right?
We publish it. The table above gives the hit rate for each tour family, measured on the predictions the model actually made — see Methodology for how it is computed.
Why are the closest matches at the top?
Rows are ordered by distance from 50 %, so the table opens where the model is least sure. “Most one-sided” reverses the order and groups the rows by tournament.
Is this a betting tip?
No. The page shows a model’s probability and how often that model has been right. There are no odds, no comparison with a market and no suggested stake.