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Win Probability

Thursday, 2 July 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchGabriel Diallo vs Lorenzo Sonego46% · 54%Toss-up · Wimbledon · R64 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlexander Zverev vs Valentin Royer94% · 6%Strong favourite · Wimbledon · R64 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassLorenzo Sonego won 7-6 4-6 7-6 6-7 6-2Gabriel Diallo46%Lorenzo Sonego54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassZizou Bergs won 7-6 4-6 6-2 6-3Zizou Bergs54%Jaime Faria46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassMarcos Giron won 7-6 6-3 6-4Quentin Halys46%Marcos Giron54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassArthur Fery won 5-7 7-6 6-3 6-3Arthur Fery38%Otto Virtanen62%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassZachary Svajda won 2-6 6-2 6-7 6-4 6-3Zachary Svajda37%Kamil Majchrzak63%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassMaria Sakkari won 6-3 0-6 7-6Kamilla Rakhimova36%Maria Sakkari64%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 4–0FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassKaren Khachanov won 6-3 6-4 6-4Karen Khachanov67%Yannick Hanfmann33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassLiudmila Samsonova won 6-4 4-6 6-2Diana Shnaider74%Liudmila Samsonova26%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 3–1FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassGrigor Dimitrov won 7-6 4-6 7-5 6-3Jakub Mensik79%Grigor Dimitrov21%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassMatteo Berrettini won 6-4 7-5 3-6 6-3Matteo Berrettini19%Arthur Fils81%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassJan Lennard Struff won 4-6 7-6 7-6 6-7 7-6Brandon Nakashima84%Jan Lennard Struff16%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassIga Swiatek won 6-1 6-3Karolina Pliskova14%Iga Swiatek86%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 4–0FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassFlavio Cobolli won 7-6 3-6 7-6 6-1James Duckworth14%Flavio Cobolli86%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassSorana Cirstea won 6-3 6-4Sorana Cirstea87%Kimberly Birrell13%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassAlex De Minaur won 6-3 6-2 6-2Alex De Minaur88%Adrian Mannarino12%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 6–1FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassLinda Noskova won 6-3 4-6 6-2Camila Osorio11%Linda Noskova89%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassElena Rybakina won 6-1 6-2Caty Mcnally10%Elena Rybakina90%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassMarta Kostyuk won 6-7 6-3 6-3Anna Blinkova9%Marta Kostyuk91%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassFrances Tiafoe won 4-6 6-2 7-5 6-2Frances Tiafoe93%Jan Choinski7%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalWimbledon · R64 · GrassAlexander Zverev won 6-1 6-3 7-6Valentin Royer6%Alexander Zverev94%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 1 Jul16 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 15.5 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days1 Jul 2026Wimbledon · R64Shintaro Mochizuki beat Ethan Quinn 6-2 7-6 7-5Pre-match: Shintaro Mochizuki 11%Surprise score89

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.