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Win Probability

Friday, 3 July 2026
18 rated matches · 4 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchMarvin Moeller vs Marat Sharipov51% · 49%Toss-up · Troyes · QF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteJannik Sinner vs Jenson Brooksby97% · 3%Strong favourite · Wimbledon · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day18 matches184 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalTroyes · QF · ClayMarvin Moeller won 6-2 3-6 7-6Marvin Moeller51%Marat Sharipov49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalBrasov · QF · ClayMaks Kasnikowski won 6-4 6-2Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg44%Maks Kasnikowski56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassBarbora Krejcikova won 6-3 7-5Nikola Bartunkova33%Barbora Krejcikova67%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassAlejandro Davidovich Fokina won 7-6 6-2 6-3Alejandro Davidovich Fokina68%Marton Fucsovics32%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassBelinda Bencic won 6-4 4-6 7-6Belinda Bencic70%Anna Kalinskaya30%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 5–1FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassIva Jovic won 6-3 3-6 6-4Ekaterina Alexandrova30%Iva Jovic70%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassRoman Safiullin won 6-3 6-3 6-3Roman Safiullin18%Joao Fonseca82%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassNaomi Osaka won 6-1 6-3Daria Kasatkina17%Naomi Osaka83%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–4FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassHubert Hurkacz won 4-6 7-6 7-5 6-2Hubert Hurkacz17%Tommy Paul83%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 2–4FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassKarolina Muchova won 6-2 7-6Karolina Muchova87%Mananchaya Sawangkaew13%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassJan Lennard Struff won 7-6 7-6 7-5Jan Lennard Struff11%Daniil Medvedev89%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 11–3FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassJessica Pegula won 6-1 6-3Jessica Pegula92%Jessica Bouzas Maneiro8%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassNovak Djokovic won 7-5 6-4 1-6 7-6Arthur Rinderknech8%Novak Djokovic92%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassAryna Sabalenka won 6-4 6-4Aryna Sabalenka94%Jelena Ostapenko6%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–4FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassCoco Gauff won 6-3 6-7 6-2Claire Liu6%Coco Gauff94%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassFelix Auger Aliassime won 7-6 6-2 6-1Felix Auger Aliassime94%Michael Zheng6%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassShintaro Mochizuki won 1-6 7-6 6-4 6-4Rafael Jodar95%Shintaro Mochizuki5%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassJannik Sinner won 6-4 6-3 6-4Jannik Sinner97%Jenson Brooksby3%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.