Win probability

Friday, 3 July 2026

17 matches selected · 3 tournaments · model last ran 17:50 UTC

Umpiry rates 17 matches on Friday, 3 July 2026. The closest is Yosuke Watanuki v Jack Kennedy at 57 % — the model’s most uncertain call of the day. The most one-sided is Jannik Sinner v Jenson Brooksby at 97 %. Probabilities come from a per-tour model trained on Elo, surface Elo, recent serve and return form and layoff.

Rated matches · ordered closest first
Time	Tournament	Round	Match	Probability	Verdict	H2H
13:15	Cary CHALLENGER · hard	QF	Watanuki Y.Kennedy J.	57 %43 %	Toss-up	1–0
16:00	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Krejcikova B.Bartunkova N.	67 %33 %	Slight edge	1–0
15:00	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Davidovich Fokina A.Fucsovics M.	68 %32 %	Clear favourite	2–1
12:10	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Jovic I.Alexandrova E.	70 %30 %	Clear favourite	1–1
10:05	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Bencic B.Kalinskaya A.	70 %30 %	Clear favourite	5–1
10:10	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Fonseca J.Safiullin R.	82 %18 %	Strong favourite	0–1
13:55	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Paul T.Hurkacz H.	83 %17 %	Strong favourite	4–2
12:10	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Osaka N.Kasatkina D.	83 %17 %	Strong favourite	4–0
16:30	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Muchova K.Sawangkaew M.	87 %13 %	Strong favourite	1–0
13:20	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Medvedev D.Lennard Struff J.	89 %11 %	Strong favourite	9–3
12:40	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Djokovic N.Rinderknech A.	92 %8 %	Strong favourite	1–0
12:40	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Pegula J.Bouzas Maneiro J.	92 %8 %	Strong favourite	2–0
16:20	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Gauff C.Liu C.	94 %6 %	Strong favourite	3–0
16:15	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Sabalenka A.Ostapenko J.	94 %6 %	Strong favourite	4–1
18:10	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Auger Aliassime F.Zheng M.	94 %6 %	Strong favourite	1–0
12:40	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Jodar R.Mochizuki S.	95 %5 %	Strong favourite	0–1
13:40	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Sinner J.Brooksby J.	97 %3 %	Strong favourite	2–0

Rated matches · ordered most one-sided first
Time	Tournament	Round	Match	Probability	Verdict	H2H
13:40	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Sinner J.Brooksby J.	97 %3 %	Strong favourite	2–0
12:40	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Jodar R.Mochizuki S.	95 %5 %	Strong favourite	0–1
18:10	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Auger Aliassime F.Zheng M.	94 %6 %	Strong favourite	1–0
16:15	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Sabalenka A.Ostapenko J.	94 %6 %	Strong favourite	4–1
16:20	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Gauff C.Liu C.	94 %6 %	Strong favourite	3–0
12:40	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Pegula J.Bouzas Maneiro J.	92 %8 %	Strong favourite	2–0
12:40	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Djokovic N.Rinderknech A.	92 %8 %	Strong favourite	1–0
13:20	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Medvedev D.Lennard Struff J.	89 %11 %	Strong favourite	9–3
16:30	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Muchova K.Sawangkaew M.	87 %13 %	Strong favourite	1–0
12:10	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Osaka N.Kasatkina D.	83 %17 %	Strong favourite	4–0
13:55	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Paul T.Hurkacz H.	83 %17 %	Strong favourite	4–2
10:10	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Fonseca J.Safiullin R.	82 %18 %	Strong favourite	0–1
10:05	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Bencic B.Kalinskaya A.	70 %30 %	Clear favourite	5–1

How to read this

Each row gives the model’s probability that the favourite wins, and the verdict says the same thing in words. Rows are ordered by how close the model thinks the match is, so the top of the table is where it is least sure. A 70 % favourite losing is not a broken model — it is the 30 %. Probabilities are not odds and take no account of any market.

How often the model has been right

Umpiry win-probability model accuracy by tour family, measured on the predictions the model made
Tour	Correct
ATP / WTA	66 %
Challenger (men)	64 %
Challenger (women)	68 %
ITF (men)	66 %
ITF (women)	64 %

Measured on the predictions the model actually made, not on a backtest — see Methodology.

Yesterday

Thursday, 2 July 2026 · 20 matches

Favourites won

15 / 20

Model expected

15.5

The model expected 15.5 favourites to win; 15 did. See yesterday’s page.

Biggest shock, last 7 days

1 Jul

Wimbledon

ATP · grass

R64

Shintaro Mochizuki beat Ethan Quinn

Surprise score

Questions

How is the probability calculated?: A separate model for each tour, trained on Elo, surface-specific Elo, recent serve and return form and time since the player’s last match. It runs several times a day; the time of the last run is at the top of this page.
How often is the model right?: We publish it. The table above gives the hit rate for each tour family, measured on the predictions the model actually made — see Methodology for how it is computed.
Why are the closest matches at the top?: Rows are ordered by distance from 50 %, so the table opens where the model is least sure. “Most one-sided” reverses the order and groups the rows by tournament.
Is this a betting tip?: No. The page shows a model’s probability and how often that model has been right. There are no odds, no comparison with a market and no suggested stake.