Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg vs Maks KasnikowskiBrasov Quarter-final

Brasov · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#283ATP
1415ELO
1373Clay ELO
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLLLLLL
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
clay
#284ATP
1399ELO
1416Clay ELO
22 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLLWWWL
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
vs
Kasnikowski M.

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg faces Maks Kasnikowski in the Brasov quarter-final on clay. Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg is the paper favourite — ranked #283 — but Maks Kasnikowski arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 10 on clay to Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC
Gueymard Wayenburg S.44%
Kasnikowski M.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.5Clay Elo 1373
Surface ELO
5.5+43 Clay Elo edge
5.2Overall Elo 1415
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1399
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.03 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

26 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
55%
Service points won·Even
61%
65%
Return points won·Even
39%
40%
Break points saved·Even
57%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.9
3.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Gueymard Wayenburg S.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Kasnikowski M.

Kasnikowski M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Gueymard Wayenburg S.

Serve advantage — Kasnikowski M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
10
13
Break points saved·Slight edge
63
56
Break points won·Even
20
16
Deciding sets·Clear edge
3
17
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
27
38

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
73
87

Gueymard Wayenburg S.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Kasnikowski M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°COvercast
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 83%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.