UMPIRY
EN

Win Probability

Saturday, 4 July 2026
17 rated matches · 3 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchZizou Bergs vs Arthur Fery51% · 49%Toss-up · Wimbledon · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlexander Zverev vs Marcos Giron95% · 5%Strong favourite · Wimbledon · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day17 matches173 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassArthur Fery won 2-6 7-5 2-6 7-6 7-6Zizou Bergs51%Arthur Fery49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassAlexander Bublik won 4-6 7-6 7-6 4-6 6-3Frances Tiafoe48%Alexander Bublik52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–2FinalTroyes · SF · ClayMarvin Moeller won 7-6 7-6Calvin Hemery57%Marvin Moeller43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassMadison Keys won 3-6 6-2 6-3Amanda Anisimova42%Madison Keys58%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassAshlyn Krueger won 6-3 6-2Daria Snigur41%Ashlyn Krueger59%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassFlavio Cobolli won 0-6 7-6 6-7 6-2 6-2Karen Khachanov41%Flavio Cobolli59%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassMarie Bouzkova won 4-6 7-6 6-4Liudmila Samsonova36%Marie Bouzkova64%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 3–3FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassMarta Kostyuk won 6-2 4-6 6-1Emma Navarro30%Marta Kostyuk70%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–4FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassJasmine Paolini won 6-1 6-2Jasmine Paolini72%Maria Sakkari28%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–3FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassLinda Noskova won 2-6 6-3 7-6Sorana Cirstea27%Linda Noskova73%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–3FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassGrigor Dimitrov won 6-3 6-4 3-6 5-7 6-3Grigor Dimitrov27%Matteo Berrettini73%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassAlexandra Eala won 7-6 6-2Alexandra Eala20%Iga Swiatek80%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassElise Mertens won 7-6 6-1Elise Mertens17%Elena Rybakina83%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 7–2FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassAlex De Minaur won 6-2 5-7 6-2 6-4Alex De Minaur84%Zachary Svajda16%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassTaylor Fritz won 4-6 6-3 6-4 7-6Taylor Fritz86%Lorenzo Sonego14%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–8FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassJiri Lehecka won 6-4 6-4 4-6 6-4Jiri Lehecka87%Jaume Munar13%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–1FinalWimbledon · R32 · GrassAlexander Zverev won 6-2 7-6 6-4Marcos Giron5%Alexander Zverev95%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 5–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 3 Jul14 of 18 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 14.6 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days3 Jul 2026Wimbledon · R32Shintaro Mochizuki beat Rafael Jodar 1-6 7-6 6-4 6-4Pre-match: Shintaro Mochizuki 5%Surprise score95

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.