Win probability

Saturday, 4 July 2026

18 matches selected · 4 tournaments · model last ran 16:50 UTC

Umpiry rates 18 matches on Saturday, 4 July 2026. The closest is Zizou Bergs v Arthur Fery at 51 % — the model’s most uncertain call of the day. The most one-sided is Alexander Zverev v Marcos Giron at 95 %. Probabilities come from a per-tour model trained on Elo, surface Elo, recent serve and return form and layoff.

Rated matches · ordered closest first
Time	Tournament	Round	Match	Probability	Verdict	H2H
13:20	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Bergs Z.Fery A.	51 %49 %	Toss-up	1–1
17:20	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Bublik A.Tiafoe F.	52 %48 %	Toss-up	3–2
14:15	Troyes CHALLENGER · clay	SF	Hemery C.Moeller M.	57 %43 %	Toss-up	1–1
15:20	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Keys M.Anisimova A.	58 %42 %	Toss-up	1–2
11:55	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Krueger A.Snigur D.	59 %41 %	Slight edge	1–0
12:20	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Cobolli F.Khachanov K.	59 %41 %	Slight edge	1–1
10:10	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Bouzkova M.Samsonova L.	64 %36 %	Slight edge	3–4
15:10	Quito CHALLENGER · clay	SF	Meligeni Alves F.Casanova H.	65 %35 %	Slight edge	0–2
10:05	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Kostyuk M.Navarro E.	70 %30 %	Clear favourite	1–4
13:10	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Paolini J.Sakkari M.	72 %28 %	Clear favourite	3–3
17:25	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Berrettini M.Dimitrov G.	73 %27 %	Clear favourite	1–2
14:30	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Noskova L.Cirstea S.	73 %27 %	Clear favourite	3–3
12:40	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Swiatek I.Eala A.	80 %20 %	Strong favourite	1–2
12:05	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Rybakina E.Mertens E.	83 %17 %	Strong favourite	7–2
10:05	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	De Minaur A.Svajda Z.	84 %16 %	Strong favourite	1–0
16:45	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Fritz T.Sonego L.	86 %14 %	Strong favourite	9–2
14:00	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Lehecka J.Munar J.	87 %13 %	Strong favourite	3–1
14:15	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Zverev A.Giron M.	95 %5 %	Strong favourite	5–0

Rated matches · ordered most one-sided first
Time	Tournament	Round	Match	Probability	Verdict	H2H
14:15	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Zverev A.Giron M.	95 %5 %	Strong favourite	5–0
14:00	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Lehecka J.Munar J.	87 %13 %	Strong favourite	3–1
16:45	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Fritz T.Sonego L.	86 %14 %	Strong favourite	9–2
10:05	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	De Minaur A.Svajda Z.	84 %16 %	Strong favourite	1–0
12:05	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Rybakina E.Mertens E.	83 %17 %	Strong favourite	7–2
12:40	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Swiatek I.Eala A.	80 %20 %	Strong favourite	1–2
14:30	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Noskova L.Cirstea S.	73 %27 %	Clear favourite	3–3
17:25	Wimbledon ATP · grass	R32	Berrettini M.Dimitrov G.	73 %27 %	Clear favourite	1–2
13:10	Wimbledon WTA · grass	R32	Paolini J.Sakkari M.	72 %28 %	Clear favourite	3–3

How to read this

Each row gives the model’s probability that the favourite wins, and the verdict says the same thing in words. Rows are ordered by how close the model thinks the match is, so the top of the table is where it is least sure. A 70 % favourite losing is not a broken model — it is the 30 %. Probabilities are not odds and take no account of any market.

How often the model has been right

Umpiry win-probability model accuracy by tour family, measured on the predictions the model made
Tour	Correct
ATP / WTA	66 %
Challenger (men)	64 %
Challenger (women)	68 %
ITF (men)	66 %
ITF (women)	64 %

Measured on the predictions the model actually made, not on a backtest — see Methodology.

Yesterday

Friday, 3 July 2026 · 17 matches

Favourites won

13 / 17

Model expected

14.1

The model expected 14.1 favourites to win; 13 did. See yesterday’s page.

Biggest shock, last 7 days

3 Jul

Wimbledon

ATP · grass

R32

Shintaro Mochizuki beat Rafael Jodar

Surprise score

Questions

How is the probability calculated?: A separate model for each tour, trained on Elo, surface-specific Elo, recent serve and return form and time since the player’s last match. It runs several times a day; the time of the last run is at the top of this page.
How often is the model right?: We publish it. The table above gives the hit rate for each tour family, measured on the predictions the model actually made — see Methodology for how it is computed.
Why are the closest matches at the top?: Rows are ordered by distance from 50 %, so the table opens where the model is least sure. “Most one-sided” reverses the order and groups the rows by tournament.
Is this a betting tip?: No. The page shows a model’s probability and how often that model has been right. There are no odds, no comparison with a market and no suggested stake.