Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz — Vienna Semi-final
Why
Surface+126 Hard Elo edgeSupports Alcaraz C.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2162Supports Alcaraz C.
Recent run7-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Medvedev D.
Head-to-headLeads 4–2 on hardSupports Alcaraz C.
This eventReached the last 16 here last yearAgainst the prediction · Medvedev D.
ELO2 158
Hard ELO2 052
Last 109–1
Age30
Height198 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $52.3M2026 $2.9M
ELO2 424
Hard ELO2 209
Last 109–1
Age23
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $65.0M2026 $4.4M
Daniil Medvedev faces Carlos Alcaraz in the Vienna semi-final on hard. Carlos Alcaraz holds the paper edge — ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 6–3, a roughly 130-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Key context
- Freshness: Daniil Medvedev comes in with 1 days of rest and 161 games in 14d, vs Carlos Alcaraz's 1 and 66.
- Head-to-head: Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 6–3, 2–4 on hard. Last met at Indian Wells Masters 2026.
- Last match: Daniil Medvedev dropped just 5 games past Adrian Mannarino.
Common opponents
12 shared · last 12 monthsMedvedev D. and Alcaraz C. faced 12 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Medvedev D. went 9–4 (69%) against them, Alcaraz C. 13–2 (87%). Alcaraz C. came out better against 2 of 11 comparable opponents, Medvedev D. against 0 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).
9–469%Medvedev D. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents13–287%Alcaraz C. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
21–12Sets31–8
173–142Games229–158
1–3Tiebreaks5–3
3–2Deciding sets3–0
vs Sinner J.#1L6-7 6-7Indian Wells Masters · hardL6-7 3-6Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Djokovic N.#12L5-7 3-5Beijing · hardW2-6 6-2 6-3 7-5Australian Open · hard
vs Paul T.#14W6-3 1-6 6-3Shanghai Masters · hardW6-4 7-6(2)Vienna · hard
Show 9 more ▾Show less ▴
vs Etcheverry T.#29W6-3 6-4Halle · grassW6-1 4-6 6-3Monte Carlo Masters · clay- vs Michelsen A.#34W6-2 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hardW7-6(1) 4-6 6-1Tokyo · hard
vs Norrie C.#41W4-6 6-3 7-6(1)Vienna · hardW6-3 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hard- vs Baez S.#49W6-4 6-0Indian Wells Masters · hardW6-1 6-3Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Rinderknech A.#61W6-4 6-4 6-4US Open · hardW6-7 6-3 6-2Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Safiullin R.#69W7-5 6-4Hangzhou · hardW6-4 6-4 6-4US Open · hard
vs Basilashvili N.#95W6-7(6) 6-1 6-3Almaty · hardW6-1 7-6(11)Vienna · hard
vs Walton A.#98L2-6 6-1 1-6 6-1 4-6Roland Garros · clayW6-3 7-6 6-2Australian Open · hard
vs Bublik A.#20Hard to compareW6-3Almaty · hardW6-3 6-0Monte Carlo Masters · clay
Head-to-head
9 meetings · Alcaraz C. leads 6–336
Hard: Alcaraz C. leads 4–2 · Grass: Alcaraz C. leads 2–1
- Medvedev D.March 2026Indian Wells MastersHard6-3 7-6
- Alcaraz C.September 2024BeijingHard7-5 6-3
- Alcaraz C.July 2024WimbledonGrass6-7 6-3 6-4 6-4
- Alcaraz C.March 2024Indian Wells MastersHard7-6 6-1
- Alcaraz C.November 2023Tour FinalsHard6-4 6-4
Evidence
Medvedev D.Alcaraz C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–19–1
Season win rate75% (53–18)86% (36–6) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO21582424 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO20522209 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 70 vs 41 matches
1st-serve points won76% (ahead)73%
Return points won41%42% (ahead)
Aces / match8.8 (ahead)4.5
ClutchLast 70 vs 41 matches
Break points saved65%65%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz — Vienna Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-31/alcaraz-vs-medvedev-vienna-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 31 October 2026).