Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev | Vienna Round of 16

UMPIRY

ViennaR16HardThu 29 Oct · 13:30

Cameron NorrieATP #41 · GBR18%

VSStrong favourite · Medvedev D.

Daniil Medvedev(3)ATP #5 · RUS82%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Medvedev D.

18%82%

Clear edge for Medvedev D. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Norrie C.5.4/10

Clear underdog

Medvedev D.7.0/10

Strong advantage

Why

Surface+173 Hard Elo edgeSupports Medvedev D.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1977Supports Medvedev D.

Recent run5-match win streakSupports Medvedev D.

Head-to-headLeads 4–0 on hardSupports Medvedev D.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Norrie C.

ELO1 961

Hard ELO1 839

Last 104–6

Age31

Height188 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $15.1M2026 $1.3M

ELO2 151

Hard ELO2 045

Last 109–1

Age30

Height198 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $52.3M2026 $2.9M

Cameron Norrie faces Daniil Medvedev in the Vienna round of 16 on hard. Daniil Medvedev holds the paper edge — ranked #5, leading the head-to-head 5–1, defending last year's round of 16.

Key context

Freshness: Cameron Norrie comes in with 2 days of rest and 44 games in 14d, vs Daniil Medvedev's 1 and 137.
Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head 5–1, 0–4 on hard. Last met at Beijing 2025.
Last match: Cameron Norrie dropped just 5 games past Francisco Cerundolo.

Common opponents

7 shared · last 12 months

All 7 opponents →

Norrie C. and Medvedev D. faced 7 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Norrie C. went 3–5 (38%) against them, Medvedev D. 6–3 (67%). Medvedev D. came out better against 4 of 7 comparable opponents, Norrie C. against 1.

3–538%Norrie C. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents6–367%Medvedev D. · better vs 4

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

8–10Sets14–6

89–96Games110–87

2–0Tiebreaks2–2

0–2Deciding sets0–2

vs Sinner J.#1L2-6 5-7Madrid Masters · clayL2-6 7-5 4-6Rome Masters · clay
vs Alcaraz C.#3L3-6 4-6Indian Wells Masters · hardW6-3 7-6Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Cerundolo F.#19W6-4 6-1Vienna · hardW7-6(4) 6-3Beijing · hard

Show 4 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Michelsen A.#34L5-7 7-6 4-6Miami Masters · hardW6-2 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Tirante T.#51L3-6 5-7Rome Masters · clayW6-3 6-2Rome Masters · clay
vs Svrcina D.#120L3-6 6-3 4-6Shanghai Masters · hardW6-2 6-3Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Budkov Kjaer N.#180W6-4 6-4NOR vs GBR · hardW6-3 6-2Madrid Masters · clay

Head-to-head

6 meetings · Medvedev D. leads 5–1

Full H2H →

Hard: Medvedev D. leads 4–0 · Clay: level 1–1

Medvedev D.September 2025BeijingHard6-3 6-4
Norrie C.May 2025Roland GarrosClay7-5 6-3 4-6 1-6 7-5
Medvedev D.May 2025Rome MastersClay6-4 6-2
Medvedev D.March 2024Miami MastersHard7-5 6-1
Medvedev D.August 2022Los CabosHard7-5 6-0

Evidence

Norrie C.Medvedev D.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–69–1

Season win rate48% (24–26)74% (51–18)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19612151

Hard-court ELO18392045

Serve vs returnLast 41 vs 67 matches

1st-serve points won69%76%

Return points won36%41%

Aces / match4.88.7

ClutchLast 41 vs 67 matches

Break points saved64%64%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast12°C · Rain

Wind11 km/h

Humidity73%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Norrie C.Medvedev D.

2Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days5

17Games · 7 days93

2Matches · 14 days7

44Games · 14 days137

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev — Vienna Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/medvedev-vs-norrie-vienna-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).