Cameron Norrie vs Dalibor Svrcina | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersR128HardThu 8 Oct · ~19:30STADIUM COURT · After 3 matches

Cameron NorrieATP #40 · GBR59%

VSSlight edge · Norrie C.

Dalibor SvrcinaATP #126 · CZE41%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Norrie C.

59%41%

Norrie C. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Norrie C.6.8/10

Slight advantage

Svrcina D.6.0/10

Even match

Why

Surface+165 Hard Elo edgeSupports Norrie C.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1829Supports Norrie C.

Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Svrcina D.

This eventReached the R32 here last yearInformative

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Norrie C.

ELO1 971

Hard ELO1 845

Last 105–5

Age31

Height188 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $15.1M2026 $1.3M

ELO1 879

Hard ELO1 756

Last 107–3

Age24

Height178 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.5M2026 $475K

Cameron Norrie faces Dalibor Svrcina in the Shanghai Masters round of 128 on hard. Cameron Norrie is the paper favourite — ranked #40, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage — but Dalibor Svrcina arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on hard to Cameron Norrie's 5 of 10.

Key context

Freshness: Cameron Norrie comes in with 6 days of rest and 23 games in 14d, vs Dalibor Svrcina's 1 and 107.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Cameron Norrie has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 87 vs 32).
Last match: Dalibor Svrcina advanced when Yoshihito Nishioka retired.

Common opponents

7 shared · last 12 months

Norrie C. and Svrcina D. faced 7 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Norrie C. went 5–2 (71%) against them, Svrcina D. 4–3 (57%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 0 better-results split).

5–271%Norrie C. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents4–357%Svrcina D. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

12–6Sets8–7

97–77Games71–69

0–1Tiebreaks0–1

1–1Deciding sets1–0

vs Sinner J.#1L2-6 5-7Madrid Masters · clayL1-6 1-6Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Shapovalov D.#42L3-6 7-5 4-6Los Cabos · hardL4-6 2-6Los Cabos · hard
vs Duckworth J.#64W6-4 6-4Los Cabos · hardW6-2 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hard

Show 4 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Hijikata R.#85W6-4 6-2Indian Wells Masters · hardL6-7(4) 4-6Hangzhou · hard
vs Bonzi B.#92W6-0 6-7 4-6 6-3 6-4Australian Open · hardW6-4 6-3Rome Masters · clay
vs Budkov Kjaer N.#152W6-4 6-4NOR vs GBR · hardW6-4 6-2Rome Masters · clay
vs McDonald M.#169W6-2 6-3Indian Wells Masters · hardW4-6 6-2 7-5US Open · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Norrie C.Svrcina D.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–57–3

Season win rate49% (23–24)57% (32–24)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19711879

Hard-court ELO18451756

Serve vs returnLast 28 vs 24 matches

1st-serve points won70%64%

Return points won36%44%

Aces / match5.11.8

ClutchLast 28 vs 24 matches

Break points saved66%60%

When it starts

STADIUM COURT · After 3 matches · Followed by

1Coppejans K. v Tsitsipas S.Starts at 12:00
2Hurkacz H. v Duckworth J.Followed by
3van Assche L. v Yunchaokete B.Not before 18:00
4This match: Norrie C. v Svrcina D.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

STADIUM COURT · ~19:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast20°C · Mainly clear

Wind8 km/h

Humidity66%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Norrie C.Svrcina D.

6Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days3

23Games · 7 days67

1Matches · 14 days5

23Games · 14 days107

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Cameron Norrie vs Dalibor Svrcina — Shanghai Masters Round of 128", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/norrie-vs-svrcina-shanghai-masters-r128?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).