Cameron Norrie vs James DuckworthLos Cabos Round of 16

Los Cabos · ATP · Round of 16
#39ATP
1829ELO
1789Hard ELO
$963kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLWLLLLLL
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
#83ATP
1628ELO
1592Hard ELO
$488kYTD
$5.4MCAREER
34 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLLWLWL
Norrie C.
vs
Duckworth J.

Cameron Norrie faces James Duckworth in the Los Cabos round of 16 on hard. Cameron Norrie holds the paper edge — ranked #39, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Norrie C.71%
Duckworth J.29%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Norrie C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
6 common opponents · Norrie C. 2–6 · Duckworth J. 0–6
Both lost · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.5+197 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.5Hard Elo 1592
7.5Overall Elo 1829
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1628
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.55 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Even
36%
33%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
74%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.5
8.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.5
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Norrie C.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Duckworth J.

Duckworth J.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Norrie C.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
85
23
Break points saved·Slight edge
97
92
Break points won·Dominant
79
1
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
24
Tiebreaks·Even
77
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
89
74

Norrie C.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Duckworth J.: played today · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 88%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw