Cameron Norrie vs Bernard Tomic — Los Cabos Quarter-final

Los Cabos · ATP · Quarter-final
Cameron Norrie
GBR5
Cameron Norrie
#39ATP
1829ELO
1789Hard ELO
$963kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLWLLLLL
—
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
Bernard Tomic
AUS
Bernard Tomic
#171ATP
1475ELO
1441Hard ELO
$117kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
33 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWWWWW
Norrie C.
vs
Tomic B.

Cameron Norrie faces Bernard Tomic in the Los Cabos quarter-final on hard. Cameron Norrie is the paper favourite — ranked #39, a roughly 350-point hard Elo advantage — but Bernard Tomic rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Norrie C.73%
Tomic B.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Norrie C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
2 common opponents · Norrie C. 1–1 · Tomic B. 0–2 · small sample
Norrie C. better · different surfaces (Hard × Grass)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Norrie C.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Tomic B.
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
9.3+348 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.7Hard Elo 1441
9.4Overall Elo 1829
ELO gap
0.6Overall Elo 1474
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.38 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

26 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
Norrie C.Tomic B.
1st serve in·Even
63%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Even
36%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.3
4.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Norrie C.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Tomic B.

Tomic B.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Norrie C.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Norrie C.Tomic B.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
86
51
Break points saved·Slight edge
97
86
Break points won·Dominant
79
4
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
83
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
77
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Norrie C.Tomic B.
Freshness·Clear edge
90
67

Norrie C.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Tomic B.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°COvercast
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 89%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw