Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina — Los Cabos Quarter-final
CAN8
Shapovalov D.
Denis Shapovalov faces Dalibor Svrcina in the Los Cabos quarter-final on hard. Denis Shapovalov holds the paper edge — ranked #68, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Shapovalov D. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Denis Shapovalov has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 74 vs 34).
- Serve & return: Denis Shapovalov brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 18), Dalibor Svrcina the stronger return game (Return Rating 77).
- Last match: Denis Shapovalov dropped just 5 games past Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadShapovalov D.: played today · 2 matches, 42 games (7d) · Svrcina D.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.