Daniil Medvedev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili | Almaty Final

UMPIRY

AlmatyFinalHardSun 25 Oct · 15:00CENTER COURT · Next on

Daniil Medvedev(1)ATP #5 · RUS82%

VSStrong favourite · Medvedev D.

Nikoloz BasilashviliATP #128 · GEO18%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Medvedev D.

82%18%

Clear edge for Medvedev D. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Medvedev D.6.8/10

Slight advantage

Basilashvili N.4.3/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+354 Hard Elo edgeSupports Medvedev D.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1977Supports Medvedev D.

Recent run6-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Basilashvili N.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardInformative

This eventReached the final here last yearSupports Medvedev D.

ELO2 137

Hard ELO2 034

Last 108–2

Age30

Height198 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $52.3M2026 $2.9M

ELO1 869

Hard ELO1 748

Last 108–2

Age34

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $9.8M2026 $383K

Daniil Medvedev faces Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Almaty final on hard. Daniil Medvedev holds the paper edge — ranked #5, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending the title. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Daniil Medvedev comes in with 1 days of rest and 147 games in 14d, vs Nikoloz Basilashvili's 1 and 97.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Daniil Medvedev has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 96 vs 53).
Last match: Daniil Medvedev advanced when Alexander Bublik retired.

Common opponents

11 shared · last 12 months

Medvedev D. and Basilashvili N. faced 11 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Medvedev D. went 9–5 (64%) against them, Basilashvili N. 8–3 (73%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 4 better-results split).

9–564%Medvedev D. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents8–373%Basilashvili N. · better vs 4

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

22–15Sets18–7

194–163Games144–112

2–4Tiebreaks2–2

3–2Deciding sets1–2

vs Nakashima B.#17L7-6(3) 6-7(4) 1-6Cincinnati · hardW7-6 6-4Rome Masters · clay
vs Rublev A.#22W7-5 6-4Hangzhou · hardL6-3 6-7 2-6Rome Masters · clay
vs Van De Zandschulp B.#38L3-6 6-7(5)Montreal · hardW6-4 7-5Chengdu · hard

Show 8 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Tsitsipas S.#39W6-4 7-5Shanghai Masters · hardW6-4 6-7(5) 6-3Almaty · hard
vs Tirante T.#50W6-3 6-2Rome Masters · clayL5-7 6-3 4-6Bastad · clay
vs Struff J.#58L6-7 6-7 5-7Wimbledon · grassW6-3 6-3Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Altmaier D.#65L4-6 4-6Halle · grassL5-7 4-6Halle · grass
vs Cilic M.#84W6-1 6-2 6-4Wimbledon · grassW6-2 7-5Almaty · hard
vs Walton A.#97L2-6 6-1 1-6 6-1 4-6Roland Garros · clayW6-4 7-6(4)Almaty · hard
vs Shimabukuro S.#109W6-2 6-1Almaty · hardW6-2 6-1Miami Masters · hard
vs Sonego L.#89Hard to compareW3-6 7-6 6-4Paris Masters · hardW6-4 6-4Halle · grass

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Medvedev D. leads 1–0

Medvedev D.October 2022ViennaHard6-2 6-2

Evidence

Medvedev D.Basilashvili N.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–28–2

Season win rate73% (49–18)52% (32–30)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO21371869

Hard-court ELO20341748

Serve vs returnLast 65 vs 51 matches

1st-serve points won76%76%

Return points won41%36%

Aces / match8.77.3

ClutchLast 65 vs 51 matches

Break points saved64%59%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · Next on · Not before 15:00

1This match: Medvedev D. v Basilashvili N.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 15:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast5°C · Clear

Wind4 km/h

Humidity38%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Medvedev D.Basilashvili N.

1Days since last match1

3Matches · 7 days5

54Games · 7 days97

7Matches · 14 days5

147Games · 14 days97

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Daniil Medvedev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili — Almaty Final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-25/basilashvili-vs-medvedev-almaty-f?utm_source=cite (as of 25 October 2026).