UMPIRY
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Marin Cilic vs Nikoloz Basilashvili — Almaty Round of 32

AlmatyR32HardMon 19 Oct · ~14:30CENTER COURT · After 2 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Cilic M.
59%41%

Cilic M. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Cilic M.6.2/10
Even match
Basilashvili N.4.8/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+153 Hard Elo edgeSupports Cilic M.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1800Supports Cilic M.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Basilashvili N.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Cilic M.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 915
Hard ELO1 802
Last 103–7
Age38
Height198 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $33.5M2026 $941K
ELO1 834
Hard ELO1 717
Last 108–2
Age34
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $9.8M2026 $383K

Marin Cilic faces Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Almaty round of 32 on hard. Marin Cilic is the paper favourite — ranked #80, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage — but Nikoloz Basilashvili arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 6 on hard to Marin Cilic's 2 of 6.

Key context

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Cilic M. and Basilashvili N. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Cilic M. went 3–0 (100%) against them, Basilashvili N. 2–1 (67%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 0 better-results split).

3–0100%Cilic M. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents2–167%Basilashvili N. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
7–1Sets4–2
47–29Games34–26
3–0Tiebreaks1–0
1–0Deciding sets0–0

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Cilic M. leads 2–0
20

Hard: Cilic M. leads 1–0 · Grass: Cilic M. leads 1–0

Evidence

Cilic M.Basilashvili N.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–78–2 (ahead)
Season win rate44% (14–18)48% (28–30) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1915 (ahead)1834
Hard-court ELO1802 (ahead)1717
Serve vs returnLast 31 vs 48 matches
1st-serve points won77% (ahead)76%
Return points won34%36% (ahead)
Aces / match9.4 (ahead)7.0
ClutchLast 31 vs 48 matches
Break points saved58%59% (ahead)

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 2 matches · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · ~14:30 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast14°C · Clear
Wind3 km/h
Humidity28%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Cilic M.Basilashvili N.
3 — fresherDays since last match1
2Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
47Games · 7 days20 — fresher
3 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
67 — fresherGames · 14 days101
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Marin Cilic vs Nikoloz Basilashvili — Almaty Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/basilashvili-vs-cilic-almaty-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).