Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz | Vienna Round of 16

UMPIRY

ViennaR16HardThu 29 Oct · 15:00

Nikoloz BasilashviliATP #95 · GEO8%

VSStrong favourite · Alcaraz C.

Carlos Alcaraz(2)ATP #3 · ESP92%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Alcaraz C.

8%92%

Clear edge for Alcaraz C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 13 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Basilashvili N.4.6/10

Heavy underdog

Alcaraz C.8.4/10

Dominant favourite

Why

Surface+480 Hard Elo edgeSupports Alcaraz C.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 2162Supports Alcaraz C.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Alcaraz C.

Opponent formOpponent hot: 8 of last 10Against the prediction · Basilashvili N.

Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players

ELO1 878

Hard ELO1 757

Last 108–2

Age34

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $9.8M2026 $383K

ELO2 421

Hard ELO2 204

Last 108–2

Age23

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $65.0M2026 $4.4M

Nikoloz Basilashvili faces Carlos Alcaraz in the Vienna round of 16 on hard. Carlos Alcaraz holds the paper edge — ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 480-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Nikoloz Basilashvili 158 games in 14 days, Carlos Alcaraz 23.
Under pressure: Carlos Alcaraz has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 98 vs Nikoloz Basilashvili's 53).
Last match: Carlos Alcaraz edged Karen Khachanov in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).

Common opponents

4 shared · last 12 months

Basilashvili N. and Alcaraz C. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Basilashvili N. went 2–2 (50%) against them, Alcaraz C. 2–2 (50%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 1 better-results split).

2–250%Basilashvili N. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents2–250%Alcaraz C. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

5–5Sets8–6

50–54Games73–61

2–1Tiebreaks2–2

1–1Deciding sets0–1

Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Shelton B.#4W6-4 6-7 6-3Rome Masters · clayL7-6(5) 1-6 3-6 6-1 6-7(7)US Open · hard
vs Medvedev D.#5L7-6(6) 1-6 3-6Almaty · hardL3-6 6-7Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Faria J.#57L4-6 4-6Cincinnati · hardW4-6 6-0 6-3 6-2US Open · hard

Show 1 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Walton A.#98W6-4 7-6(4)Almaty · hardW6-3 7-6 6-2Australian Open · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Alcaraz C. leads 2–0

Alcaraz C.May 2022Madrid MastersClay6-3 7-5
Alcaraz C.May 2021Roland GarrosClay6-4 6-2 6-4

Evidence

Basilashvili N.Alcaraz C.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–28–2

Season win rate52% (33–31)85% (34–6)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18782421

Hard-court ELO17572204

Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 39 matches

1st-serve points won77%73%

Return points won36%42%

Aces / match7.34.4

ClutchLast 53 vs 39 matches

Break points saved60%64%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

15:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast12°C · Overcast

Wind11 km/h

Humidity68%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Basilashvili N.Alcaraz C.

3Days since last match1

4Matches · 7 days1

95Games · 7 days23

7Matches · 14 days1

158Games · 14 days23

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz — Vienna Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/alcaraz-vs-basilashvili-vienna-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).