Alex De Minaur vs Carlos Alcaraz | Vienna Final

UMPIRY

ViennaFinalHardSun 1 Nov · 14:00CENTRE COURT · Next on

Alex De Minaur(5)ATP #10 · AUS21%

VSClear favourite · Alcaraz C.

Carlos Alcaraz(2)ATP #3 · ESP79%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Alcaraz C.

21%79%

Clear edge for Alcaraz C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

De Minaur A.5.2/10

Clear underdog

Alcaraz C.6.8/10

Slight advantage

Why

Surface+153 Hard Elo edgeSupports Alcaraz C.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 2162Supports Alcaraz C.

Head-to-headLeads 3–0 on hardSupports Alcaraz C.

This eventReached the semis here last yearAgainst the prediction · De Minaur A.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Alcaraz C.

ELO2 143

Hard ELO2 018

Last 108–2

Age27

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $25.8M2026 $3.0M

ELO2 427

Hard ELO2 213

Last 109–1

Age23

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $65.0M2026 $4.4M

Alex De Minaur faces Carlos Alcaraz in the Vienna final on hard. Carlos Alcaraz holds the paper edge — ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 6–0, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Head-to-head: Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 6–0, 0–3 on hard. Last met at Australian Open 2026.
Last match: Carlos Alcaraz edged Daniil Medvedev in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
Fatigue load: Alex De Minaur carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

13 shared · last 12 months

All 13 opponents →

De Minaur A. and Alcaraz C. faced 13 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. De Minaur A. went 8–9 (47%) against them, Alcaraz C. 12–3 (80%). Alcaraz C. came out better against 7 of 13 comparable opponents, De Minaur A. against 1 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).

8–947%De Minaur A. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents12–380%Alcaraz C. · better vs 7

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

22–21Sets27–11

215–215Games225–178

4–3Tiebreaks5–5

4–4Deciding sets3–1

vs Sinner J.#1L5-7 2-6Tour Finals · hardL6-7 5-7Tour Finals · hard
vs Zverev A.#2W2-6 7-6(5) 11-9Laver Cup - London · hardW6-4 7-6 6-7 6-7 7-5Australian Open · hard
vs Djokovic N.#12L6-7(3) 1-0Beijing · hardW2-6 6-2 6-3 7-5Australian Open · hard

Show 10 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Fritz T.#13W7-6 6-3Tour Finals · hardW6-7 7-5 6-3Tour Finals · hard
vs Bublik A.#20W6-4 6-1 6-1Australian Open · hardW6-3 6-0Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Khachanov K.#24W6-3 6-4Shanghai Masters · hardW6-4 7-6(5)Vienna · hard
vs Ruud C.#25L3-6 3-6United Cup · hardW6-1 7-6Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Musetti L.#26L5-7 6-3 5-7Tour Finals · hardW6-4 6-1Tour Finals · hard
vs Vacherot V.#31L4-6 6-3 3-6Monte Carlo Masters · clayW6-4 6-4Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Arnaldi M.#36L6-4 6-7 4-6Rome Masters · clayW7-6(6) 6-1Tokyo · hard
vs Norrie C.#41L4-6 4-6Indian Wells Masters · hardW6-3 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Shapovalov D.#52W6-4 6-1London · grassW7-6(3) 2-1Tokyo · hard
vs Korda S.#81W4-6 6-4 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hardL3-6 7-5 4-6Miami Masters · hard

Head-to-head

6 meetings · Alcaraz C. leads 6–0

Full H2H →

Hard: Alcaraz C. leads 3–0 · Clay: Alcaraz C. leads 2–0 · Carpet: Alcaraz C. leads 1–0

Alcaraz C.January 2026Australian OpenHard7-5 6-2 6-1
Alcaraz C.November 2025Tour FinalsHard7-6 6-2
Alcaraz C.April 2025BarcelonaClay7-5 6-3
Alcaraz C.February 2025RotterdamHard6-4 3-6 6-2
Alcaraz C.June 2023LondonCarpet6-4 6-4

Evidence

De Minaur A.Alcaraz C.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–29–1

Season win rate69% (45–20)86% (37–6)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO21432427

Hard-court ELO20182213

Serve vs returnLast 64 vs 42 matches

1st-serve points won71%73%

Return points won40%42%

Aces / match4.14.6

ClutchLast 64 vs 42 matches

Break points saved67%65%

When it starts

CENTRE COURT · Next on · Not before 14:00

1This match: De Minaur A. v Alcaraz C.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTRE COURT · 14:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast11°C · Overcast

Wind9 km/h

Humidity56%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

De Minaur A.Alcaraz C.

1Days since last match1

4Matches · 7 days4

95Games · 7 days89

4Matches · 14 days4

95Games · 14 days89

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alex De Minaur vs Carlos Alcaraz — Vienna Final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-01/alcaraz-vs-minaur-vienna-f?utm_source=cite (as of 1 November 2026).