Jannik Sinner vs Carlos AlcarazTour Finals Final

Tour Finals · ATP · Final
#1ATP
2320ELO
2263Hard ELO
$6.9MYTD
$65MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 9 November 2025
hard
#2ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
Sinner J.
7-6 7-5
Alcaraz C.
Sinner J.
7772
Alcaraz C.
6450

Jannik Sinner defeated Carlos Alcaraz 7-6 7-5 in the Tour Finals final on hard. The result followed the form book — Jannik Sinner came in ranked #1, defending the title. Jannik Sinner narrowed the head-to-head to 10–7.

Key context

Head to head

610
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-05Monte Carlo MastersFclayJannik Sinner7-6(5) 6-3
2025-08-25US OpenFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4
2025-08-07Cincinnati MastersFhardCarlos Alcaraz5-0 RET
2025-06-30WimbledonFgrassJannik Sinner4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4
2025-05-26Roland GarrosFclayCarlos Alcaraz4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2)
2025-05-07Rome MastersFclayCarlos Alcaraz7-6(5) 6-1
2024-09-26BeijingFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(3)
2024-05-27Roland GarrosSFclayCarlos Alcaraz2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3
2024-03-04Indian Wells MastersSFhardCarlos Alcaraz1-6 6-3 6-2
2023-09-27BeijingSFhardJannik Sinner7-6(4) 6-1
2023-03-20Miami MastersSFhardJannik Sinner6-7(4) 6-4 6-2
2023-03-06Indian Wells MastersSFhardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(4) 6-3
2022-08-29US OpenQFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-3 6-7(7) 6-7(0) 7-5 6-3
2022-07-25UmagFclayJannik Sinner6-7(5) 6-1 6-1
2022-06-27WimbledonR16grassJannik Sinner6-1 6-4 6-7(8) 6-3
2021-11-01Paris MastersR32hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(1) 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Sinner J.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Alcaraz C.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Sinner J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sinner J.Alcaraz C.
100
Serve
74
100
Return
95

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
80%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
59%
57%
Service points won·Even
72%
68%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
73%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.3
5.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.4
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (94 vs 103). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
100
98
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Even
100
99
Deciding sets·Even
100
100
Tiebreaks·Even
100
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+175 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 2088
5.7Overall Elo 2320
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 2162
3.1
H2H
6.9
10.0
Surface form
7.7
10.010-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.8
Minutes 14d
8.6
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
59

Sinner J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 95 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast