Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerBeijing Final

Beijing · ATP · Final
#2ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 26 September 2024
hard
#1ATP
2320ELO
2263Hard ELO
$6.9MYTD
$65MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWW
Alcaraz C.
6-7 6-4 7-6
Sinner J.
Alcaraz C.
666772
Sinner J.
784631

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Jannik Sinner 6-7 6-4 7-6 in the Beijing final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jannik Sinner came in ranked #1, defending the title, but Carlos Alcaraz had arrived on a 4-match winning run. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 10–7.

Key context

Head to head

97
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-05Monte Carlo MastersFclayJannik Sinner7-6(5) 6-3
2025-11-09Tour FinalsFhardJannik Sinner7-6(4) 7-5
2025-08-25US OpenFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4
2025-08-07Cincinnati MastersFhardCarlos Alcaraz5-0 RET
2025-06-30WimbledonFgrassJannik Sinner4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4
2025-05-26Roland GarrosFclayCarlos Alcaraz4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2)
2025-05-07Rome MastersFclayCarlos Alcaraz7-6(5) 6-1
2024-05-27Roland GarrosSFclayCarlos Alcaraz2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3
2024-03-04Indian Wells MastersSFhardCarlos Alcaraz1-6 6-3 6-2
2023-09-27BeijingSFhardJannik Sinner7-6(4) 6-1
2023-03-20Miami MastersSFhardJannik Sinner6-7(4) 6-4 6-2
2023-03-06Indian Wells MastersSFhardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(4) 6-3
2022-08-29US OpenQFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-3 6-7(7) 6-7(0) 7-5 6-3
2022-07-25UmagFclayJannik Sinner6-7(5) 6-1 6-1
2022-06-27WimbledonR16grassJannik Sinner6-1 6-4 6-7(8) 6-3
2021-11-01Paris MastersR32hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(1) 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Sinner J.

Sinner J.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.Sinner J.
74
Serve
100
95
Return
100

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
80%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
59%
Service points won·Even
68%
72%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
73%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.2
7.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.3
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (170 vs 173). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
98
100
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Even
100
100
Tiebreaks·Even
100
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 45 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 2088
Surface ELO
5.9+175 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 2320
5.8
H2H
4.2
8.2
Surface form
9.3
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.3
Minutes 14d
8.0
Prev. match
Context
8.5
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
60

Sinner J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 94 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 59%