Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner — Indian Wells Masters Semi-final

Indian Wells Masters · ATP · Semi-final
Carlos Alcaraz
ESP2
Carlos Alcaraz
#2ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 4 March 2024
hard
Jannik Sinner
ITA3
Jannik Sinner
#1ATP
2320ELO
2263Hard ELO
$6.9MYTD
$65MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLWWW
Alcaraz C.
1-6 6-3 6-2
Sinner J.
Alcaraz C.
1662
Sinner J.
6321

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Jannik Sinner 1-6 6-3 6-2 in the Indian Wells Masters semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jannik Sinner came in ranked #1, defending last year's semi-final. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 10–7.

Key context

Head to head

9–7
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-05Monte Carlo MastersFclayJannik Sinner7-6(5) 6-3
2025-11-09Tour FinalsFhardJannik Sinner7-6(4) 7-5
2025-08-25US OpenFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4
2025-08-07Cincinnati MastersFhardCarlos Alcaraz5-0 RET
2025-06-30WimbledonFgrassJannik Sinner4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4
2025-05-26Roland GarrosFclayCarlos Alcaraz4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2)
2025-05-07Rome MastersFclayCarlos Alcaraz7-6(5) 6-1
2024-09-26BeijingFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(3)
2024-05-27Roland GarrosSFclayCarlos Alcaraz2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3
2023-09-27BeijingSFhardJannik Sinner7-6(4) 6-1
2023-03-20Miami MastersSFhardJannik Sinner6-7(4) 6-4 6-2
2023-03-06Indian Wells MastersSFhardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(4) 6-3
2022-08-29US OpenQFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-3 6-7(7) 6-7(0) 7-5 6-3
2022-07-25UmagFclayJannik Sinner6-7(5) 6-1 6-1
2022-06-27WimbledonR16grassJannik Sinner6-1 6-4 6-7(8) 6-3
2021-11-01Paris MastersR32hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(1) 7-5
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Sinner J.

Sinner J.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.Sinner J.
74
Serve
100
95
Return
100

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Alcaraz C.Sinner J.
1st serve in·Even
65%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
80%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
59%
Service points won·Even
68%
72%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
74%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.2
7.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.3
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (170 vs 173). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Alcaraz C.Sinner J.
Clutch Rating·Even
98
100
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Even
100
100
Tiebreaks·Even
100
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Alcaraz C.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Sinner J.
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 2088
Surface ELO
5.9+175 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 2320
4.2
H2H
5.8
6.4
Surface form
10.0
Win streak
10.018-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
6.8
Country comfort
6.5
6.0
Surface transition
Context
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Alcaraz C.Sinner J.
Freshness·
—
59

Sinner J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 95 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
20°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 29%
Final
Alcaraz C.[2]
Medvedev D.[4]
7-656-1
Semi-finals
Medvedev D.[4]
Paul T.[17]
1-67-636-2
Alcaraz C.[2]
Sinner J.[3]
1-66-36-2
Quarter-finals
Sinner J.[3]
Lehecka J.[32]
6-36-3
Paul T.[17]
Ruud C.[9]
6-21-66-3
Medvedev D.[4]
Rune H.[7]
7-56-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Zverev A.[6]
6-36-1
R16
Zverev A.[6]
De Minaur A.[10]
5-76-26-3
Rune H.[7]
Fritz T.[12]
2-67-626-3
Ruud C.[9]
Monfils G.
3-67-636-4
Medvedev D.[4]
Dimitrov G.[13]
6-46-4
Lehecka J.[32]
Tsitsipas S.[11]
6-26-4
Sinner J.[3]
Shelton B.[16]
7-646-1
Alcaraz C.[2]
Marozsan F.
6-36-3
Paul T.[17]
Nardi L.
6-46-3
R32
Dimitrov G.[13]
Mannarino A.[21]
6-36-3
Paul T.[17]
Humbert U.[14]
6-46-4
Ruud C.[9]
Fils A.
6-26-4
Monfils G.
Norrie C.[28]
6-757-656-3
Fritz T.[12]
Baez S.[19]
6-26-2
Rune H.[7]
Musetti L.[26]
6-27-65
Lehecka J.[32]
Rublev A.[5]
6-46-4
Shelton B.[16]
Cerundolo F.[22]
7-653-67-65
Sinner J.[3]
Struff J.[25]
6-36-4
Zverev A.[6]
Griekspoor T.[27]
7-676-3
De Minaur A.[10]
Bublik A.[20]
7-56-0
Marozsan F.
Seyboth Wild T.
6-26-2
Alcaraz C.[2]
Auger Aliassime F.[31]
6-26-3
Medvedev D.[4]
Korda S.[29]
6-45-76-3
Nardi L.
Djokovic N.[1]
6-43-66-3
Tsitsipas S.[11]
Tiafoe F.[18]
6-36-3
R64
Nardi L.
Zhang Z.
6-33-66-3
Ruud C.[9]
Klein L.
6-47-64
Mannarino A.[21]
Machac T.
6-16-2
Fritz T.[12]
Tabilo A.
7-626-2
Rune H.[7]
Raonic M.
W/O
Cerundolo F.[22]
Shevchenko A.
6-23-1
Bublik A.[20]
Shang J.
6-46-1
De Minaur A.[10]
Daniel T.
6-16-2
Auger Aliassime F.[31]
Lestienne C.
6-46-1
Korda S.[29]
Safiullin R.
6-46-2
Norrie C.[28]
Sonego L.
6-46-4
Monfils G.
Hurkacz H.[8]
6-06-756-2
Medvedev D.[4]
Carballes Baena R.
6-26-3
Baez S.[19]
Fognini F.
7-56-3
Musetti L.[26]
Shapovalov D.
6-42-67-5
Rublev A.[5]
Murray A.
7-636-1
Lehecka J.[32]
Nakashima B.
3-66-36-4
Tsitsipas S.[11]
Pouille L.
6-36-2
Shelton B.[16]
Mensik J.
4-66-36-4
Struff J.[25]
Coric B.
6-736-27-69
Sinner J.[3]
Kokkinakis T.
6-36-0
Zverev A.[6]
Oconnell C.
6-46-4
Griekspoor T.[27]
Hanfmann Y.
6-36-3
Seyboth Wild T.
Khachanov K.[15]
6-17-5
Marozsan F.
Jarry N.[24]
3-67-56-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Arnaldi M.
6-756-06-1
Humbert U.[14]
Kypson P.
6-46-4
Dimitrov G.[13]
Muller A.
7-56-2
Paul T.[17]
Michelsen A.
6-26-2
Tiafoe F.[18]
Lajovic D.
6-36-3
Fils A.
Davidovich Fokina A.[23]
6-36-4
Djokovic N.[1]
Vukic A.
6-25-76-3
R128
Vukic A.
Mochizuki S.
7-647-66
Lajovic D.
Ruusuvuori E.
7-56-2
Mensik J.
Hong S.
6-36-4
Arnaldi M.
Van Assche L.
7-667-63
Shapovalov D.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-16-4
Pouille L.
Altmaier D.
6-46-3
Zhang Z.
Kovacevic A.
6-726-37-5
Michelsen A.
Munar J.
6-26-3
Kypson P.
Quinn E.
6-17-61
Klein L.
Moreno De Alboran N.
7-686-4
Fils A.
Borges N.
7-656-2
Sonego L.
Kecmanovic M.
7-616-4
Monfils G.
Purcell M.
6-16-2
Carballes Baena R.
Cobolli F.
6-46-4
Safiullin R.
Evans D.
6-15-76-2
Machac T.
Wawrinka S.
7-634-66-2
Muller A.
Grenier H.
7-657-5
Fognini F.
Zapata Miralles B.
4-66-26-3
Raonic M.
Nagal S.
6-36-3
Murray A.
Goffin D.
6-36-2
Nakashima B.
Eubanks C.
6-37-63
Coric B.
Ofner S.
6-23-66-0
Kokkinakis T.
Giron M.
6-37-5
Oconnell C.
Draper J.
1-66-36-2
Hanfmann Y.
Cachin P.
6-776-46-1
Shang J.
Thompson J.
6-26-3
Daniel T.
Galan D.
6-46-1
Seyboth Wild T.
Wolf J.
6-26-1
Marozsan F.
Rodionov J.
6-36-2
Lestienne C.
Kudla D.
3-66-26-4
Tabilo A.
Kotov P.
4-66-37-5
Shevchenko A.
Koepfer D.
6-31-67-63