Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De MinaurRotterdam Final

Rotterdam · ATP · Final
#2ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 3 February 2025
hard
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Alcaraz C.
6-4 3-6 6-2
De Minaur A.
Alcaraz C.
6362
De Minaur A.
4621

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Alex De Minaur 6-4 3-6 6-2 in the Rotterdam final on hard. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 5–0. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 6–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Carlos Alcaraz closed it out in three sets, 6–4 3–6 6–2.

Head to head

50
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenQFhardCarlos Alcaraz7-5 6-2 6-1
2025-11-09Tour FinalsRRhardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(5) 6-2
2025-04-14BarcelonaQFclayCarlos Alcaraz7-5 6-3
2023-06-19Queen's ClubFgrassCarlos Alcaraz6-4 6-4
2022-04-18BarcelonaSFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-7(4) 7-6(4) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.De Minaur A.
74
Serve
48
95
Return
80

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
57%
Service points won·Even
68%
66%
Return points won·Even
42%
40%
Break points saved·Even
67%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.6
4.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (103 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
98
95
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Even
99
97
Deciding sets·Even
100
97
Tiebreaks·Even
100
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.1+153 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.9Hard Elo 1935
8.6Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
1.4Overall Elo 1961
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.0
Surface form
7.6
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
64

De Minaur A.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 97 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
2°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 90%