Keegan Smith vs Zsombor PirosBrasov Final

Brasov · CHALLENGER · Final
#247ATP
1421ELO
1254Clay ELO
28 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLLWW
Sets
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTRAL COURT · 1st on
#169ATP
1674ELO
1635Clay ELO
$145kYTD
$975kCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLLWW
Smith K.
vs
Piros Z.

Keegan Smith faces Zsombor Piros in the Brasov final on clay. Zsombor Piros holds the paper edge — ranked #169, a roughly 380-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:20 UTC
Smith K.8%
Piros Z.92%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Piros Z. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
0.2Clay Elo 1254
Surface ELO
9.8+382 Clay Elo edge
1.8Overall Elo 1421
ELO gap
8.2Overall Elo 1674
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.34 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.86 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Smith K.Cooling
Piros Z.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

31 vs 29 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
75%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
52%
Service points won·Even
67%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
40%
Break points saved·Even
68%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.8
3.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Smith K.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Piros Z.

Piros Z.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Smith K.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
25
53
Break points saved·Even
84
84
Break points won·Dominant
3
32
Deciding sets·Dominant
48
82
Tiebreaks·Dominant
7
32

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
62
66

Smith K.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 74 games (7d) · Piros Z.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°CMainly clear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.