Andrej Nedic vs Keegan Smith — Brasov Quarter-final

Brasov · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
BIH
Andrej Nedic
#250ATP
1492ELO
1483Clay ELO
21 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLLLW
—
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
clay
USA
Keegan Smith
#247ATP
1421ELO
1254Clay ELO
28 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLLWWWL
Nedic A.
vs
Smith K.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC
Nedic A.76%
Smith K.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Nedic A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nedic A.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Smith K.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.9+229 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.1Clay Elo 1254
5.9Overall Elo 1492
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1421
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.27 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.73 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Nedic A.Stable
Smith K.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Nedic A.Smith K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
75%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
67%
Return points won·Slight edge
45%
35%
Break points saved·Clear edge
51%
68%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.0
6.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Nedic A.serving75% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Smith K.

Smith K.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Nedic A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Nedic A.Smith K.
Freshness·Even
70
67

Nedic A.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 91 games (7d) · Smith K.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 65 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°COvercast
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 83%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Maestrelli F.[1]
Milic O.
3-67-683-6
Justo G.
Agamenone F.
Cretu C.
Wallin O.
5-71-6
Ferreira Silva F.
Butvilas E.[7]
6-36-3
Mayot H.[4]
Nedic A.
2-60-6
Guillen Meza A.
Roncadelli F.
6-42-64-6
Smith K.
Ghetu G.
4-67-666-4
Squire H.
Bailly G.[5]
6-33-66-4
Midon L.[8]
Haita S.
6-737-56-0
Alcala Gurri M.
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
6-756-33-6
Kasnikowski M.
Andrade A.
7-646-1
Santamarta Roig A.
Cina F.[3]
6-46-3
Pavlovic L.[6]
Santillan A.
7-626-3
Simakin I.
Kuzmanov D.
6-34-62-6
Palosi S.
Yevseyev D.
6-46-757-5
Albot R.
Piros Z.[2]
1-64-6
Milic O.
Justo G.
Wallin O.
Ferreira Silva F.
Nedic A.
Roncadelli F.
6-36-4
Smith K.
Squire H.
7-656-2
Midon L.[8]
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
6-43-64-6
Kasnikowski M.
Santamarta Roig A.
6-36-2
Pavlovic L.
Kuzmanov D.
Palosi S.
Piros Z.
—
Nedic A.
Smith K.
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
Kasnikowski M.
—
—
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