Guido Ivan Justo vs Keegan Smith — Brasov Semi-final

Brasov · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
ARG
Guido Ivan Justo
#233ATP
1443ELO
1433Clay ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTRAL COURT · 2nd on
USA
Keegan Smith
#198ATP
1421ELO
1254Clay ELO
28 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLWWW
Ivan Justo G.
6-7 2-6
Smith K.
Ivan Justo G.
620
Smith K.
762

Keegan Smith defeated Guido Ivan Justo in the semifinals of the Brasov tournament, winning 7-6, 6-2 on clay. Smith hit 7 aces to Justo's 1 and converted 67% of his break points, compared to Justo's 0%. Smith won 83% of his first-serve points and broke Justo's serve twice.

Key context

  • Match story: Keegan Smith closed it out in two sets, 7–6 6–2.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Ivan Justo G.Smith K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
74%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
67%
Return points won·Clear edge
47%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.2
7.0
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Ivan Justo G.Smith K.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
12
26
Break points saved·Dominant
23
84
Break points won·Dominant
42
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
20
48
Tiebreaks·Dominant
50
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Ivan Justo G.74%
Smith K.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ivan Justo G. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ivan Justo G.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Smith K.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.2+179 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Clay Elo 1254
5.3Overall Elo 1443
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1421
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.18 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.84 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Ivan Justo G.Smith K.
Freshness·Clear edge
100
84

Ivan Justo G.: 21 days rest · Smith K.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
21°CMainly clear
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 53%

Draw