Guido Ivan Justo vs Keegan Smith — Brasov Semi-final

Brasov · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
ARG
Guido Ivan Justo
#238ATP
1443ELO
1433Clay ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWLWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
clay
USA
Keegan Smith
#247ATP
1421ELO
1254Clay ELO
28 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWLLWWW
Justo G.
vs
Smith K.

Guido Ivan Justo faces Keegan Smith in the Brasov semi-final on clay. Guido Ivan Justo holds the paper edge — ranked #238, a roughly 180-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC
Justo G.74%
Smith K.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Justo G. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Justo G.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Smith K.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.2+179 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Clay Elo 1254
5.3Overall Elo 1443
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1421
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.18 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.84 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Justo G.Rising
Smith K.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

44 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Justo G.Smith K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
75%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
67%
Return points won·Slight edge
46%
35%
Break points saved·Clear edge
56%
68%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.2
6.8
Double faults / match·Even
1.7
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (44 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Justo G.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Smith K.

Smith K.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Justo G.

Serve advantage — Justo G.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Justo G.Smith K.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
16
25
Break points saved·Dominant
23
84
Break points won·Dominant
42
3
Deciding sets·Clear edge
24
48
Tiebreaks·Dominant
61
6

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Justo G.Smith K.
Freshness·Slight edge
72
66

Justo G.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 42 games (7d) · Smith K.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
19°CPartly cloudy
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 59%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Maestrelli F.[1]
Milic O.
3-67-683-6
Justo G.
Agamenone F.
Cretu C.
Wallin O.
5-71-6
Ferreira Silva F.
Butvilas E.[7]
6-36-3
Mayot H.[4]
Nedic A.
2-60-6
Guillen Meza A.
Roncadelli F.
6-42-64-6
Smith K.
Ghetu G.
4-67-666-4
Squire H.
Bailly G.[5]
6-33-66-4
Midon L.[8]
Haita S.
6-737-56-0
Alcala Gurri M.
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
6-756-33-6
Kasnikowski M.
Andrade A.
7-646-1
Santamarta Roig A.
Cina F.[3]
6-46-3
Pavlovic L.[6]
Santillan A.
7-626-3
Simakin I.
Kuzmanov D.
6-34-62-6
Palosi S.
Yevseyev D.
6-46-757-5
Albot R.
Piros Z.[2]
1-64-6
Milic O.
Justo G.
4-66-32-6
Wallin O.
Ferreira Silva F.
6-46-3
Nedic A.
Roncadelli F.
6-36-4
Smith K.
Squire H.
7-656-2
Midon L.[8]
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
6-43-64-6
Kasnikowski M.
Santamarta Roig A.
6-36-2
Pavlovic L.[6]
Kuzmanov D.
6-42-66-75
Palosi S.
Piros Z.[2]
3-66-31-6
Justo G.
Wallin O.
6-16-4
Nedic A.
Smith K.
1-66-73
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
Kasnikowski M.
4-62-6
Kuzmanov D.
Piros Z.
2-63-6
Justo G.
Smith K.
Kasnikowski M.
Piros Z.
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