Henri Squire vs Gilles Arnaud BaillyBrasov Round of 32

Brasov · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#235ATP
1534ELO
1516Clay ELO
25 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWWWLWWW
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
clay
#208ATP
1513ELO
1480Clay ELO
20 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLLLWWL
Squire H.
vs
Bailly G.

Henri Squire faces Gilles Arnaud Bailly in the Brasov round of 32 on clay. Gilles Arnaud Bailly is the paper favourite — ranked #208 — but Henri Squire arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 9 on clay to Gilles Arnaud Bailly's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC
Squire H.52%
Bailly G.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
5.5+36 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Clay Elo 1480
5.3Overall Elo 1534
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1513
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.76 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.64 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Squire H.Stable
Bailly G.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

32 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
70%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
59%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Even
61%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.9
1.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.6
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Squire H.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Bailly G.

Bailly G.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Squire H.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
92
88

Squire H.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Bailly G.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CMainly clear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 40%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.