Guido Ivan Justo vs Olle Wallin — Brasov Quarter-final

Brasov · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
ARG
Guido Ivan Justo
#238ATP
1443ELO
1433Clay ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLWWW
—
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
clay
SWE
Olle Wallin
#447ATP
1300ELO
1289Clay ELO
24 yrs
Last 10
WWWWLLWLLW
Justo G.
vs
Wallin O.

Guido Ivan Justo faces Olle Wallin in the Brasov quarter-final on clay. Guido Ivan Justo is the paper favourite — ranked #238, a roughly 140-point clay Elo advantage — but Olle Wallin rides a 4-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC
Justo G.74%
Wallin O.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Justo G. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Justo G.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Wallin O.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.8+144 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Clay Elo 1289
6.8Overall Elo 1443
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1300
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.98 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.76 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Justo G.Stable
Wallin O.Risingearly

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

44 vs 1 matches

Statistics

This season
Justo G.Wallin O.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
66%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
51%
39%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
54%
Return points won·Slight edge
46%
41%
Break points saved·Even
56%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.2
3.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.7
6.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (44 vs 1). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Justo G.serving65% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Wallin O.

Wallin O.serving50% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Justo G.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Freshness

Recent load
Justo G.Wallin O.
Freshness·Dominant
89
64

Justo G.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Wallin O.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 74%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Maestrelli F.[1]
Milic O.
3-67-683-6
Justo G.
Agamenone F.
Cretu C.
Wallin O.
5-71-6
Ferreira Silva F.
Butvilas E.[7]
6-36-3
Mayot H.[4]
Nedic A.
2-60-6
Guillen Meza A.
Roncadelli F.
6-42-64-6
Smith K.
Ghetu G.
4-67-666-4
Squire H.
Bailly G.[5]
6-33-66-4
Midon L.[8]
Haita S.
6-737-56-0
Alcala Gurri M.
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
6-756-33-6
Kasnikowski M.
Andrade A.
7-646-1
Santamarta Roig A.
Cina F.[3]
6-46-3
Pavlovic L.[6]
Santillan A.
7-626-3
Simakin I.
Kuzmanov D.
6-34-62-6
Palosi S.
Yevseyev D.
6-46-757-5
Albot R.
Piros Z.[2]
1-64-6
Milic O.
Justo G.
4-66-32-6
Wallin O.
Ferreira Silva F.
6-46-3
Nedic A.
Roncadelli F.
6-36-4
Smith K.
Squire H.
7-656-2
Midon L.[8]
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
6-43-64-6
Kasnikowski M.
Santamarta Roig A.
6-36-2
Pavlovic L.[6]
Kuzmanov D.
6-42-66-75
Palosi S.
Piros Z.
3-6 2-2
Justo G.
Wallin O.
Nedic A.
Smith K.
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
Kasnikowski M.
Kuzmanov D.
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