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Win Probability

Monday, 3 August 2026
20 rated matches · 4 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchDiane Parry vs Kayla Day49% · 51%Toss-up · Toronto · R128 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouritePolina Kudermetova vs Alina Korneeva77% · 23%Clear favourite · Toronto · R128 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches204 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalToronto · R128 · HardKayla Day won 3-6 6-3 7-5Diane Parry49%Kayla Day51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalMontreal · R128 · HardVit Kopriva won 6-4 6-4Alexis Galarneau51%Vit Kopriva49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R128 · HardRebecca Sramkova won 6-3 6-3Rebecca Sramkova51%Anna Blinkova49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalToronto · R128 · HardLiudmila Samsonova won 7-6(9) 7-5Janice Tjen49%Liudmila Samsonova51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalMontreal · R128 · HardJames Duckworth won 6-3 6-1James Duckworth49%C. O'Connell51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalMontreal · R128 · HardTitouan Droguet won 6-4 2-6 7-6(7)Luca Van Assche52%Titouan Droguet48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–2FinalToronto · R128 · HardMaya Joint won 4-6 6-1 6-3Yuliia Starodubtseva46%Maya Joint54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalToronto · R128 · HardAlycia Parks won 6-4 6-4Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva45%Alycia Parks55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalToronto · R128 · HardAntonia Ruzic won 4-6 6-1 6-3Lois Boisson44%Antonia Ruzic56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · R128 · HardElena Gabriela Ruse won 6-0 7-5Elena Gabriela Ruse43%Peyton Stearns57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalToronto · R128 · HardTalia Gibson won 6-2 3-2Talia Gibson58%Elisabetta Cocciaretto42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalToronto · R128 · HardAnna Bondar won 6-4 7-5Anhelina Kalinina60%Anna Bondar40%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–3FinalToronto · R128 · HardNikola Bartunkova won 7-5 6-4Nikola Bartunkova60%Bianca Andreescu40%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalToronto · R128 · HardKarolina Pliskova won 6-4 6-4Oleksandra Oliynykova39%Karolina Pliskova61%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalWashington · F · HardTaylor Fritz won 7-6(2) 6-4Taylor Fritz62%Rafael Jodar38%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalToronto · R128 · HardMagdalena Frech won 7-5 6-3Magdalena Frech62%Leolia Jeanjean38%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalToronto · R128 · HardShuai Zhang won 6-4 6-1Yulia Putintseva64%Shuai Zhang36%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 3–7FinalWashington · F · HardAlexandra Eala won 4-6 6-4 6-0Jessica Pegula71%Alexandra Eala29%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalMontreal · R128 · HardMariano Navone won 6-3 6-7(5) 6-3Matteo Berrettini71%Mariano Navone29%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 3–2FinalToronto · R128 · HardAlina Korneeva won 6-0 3-0Alina Korneeva23%Polina Kudermetova77%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 2 Aug9 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 12.8 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days2 Aug 2026Toronto · R128Maiko Uchijima beat Cristina Bucsa 6-3 6-4Pre-match: Maiko Uchijima 12%Surprise score88

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.